Once the nominees are announced on January 16th, 2014, and once I embark on my annual Oscar Challenge, I will use the below boxes to list a progression of what I think will win based on a number of factors (history, other award ceremonies, general consensus, etc.) and also a list of what I think should win. This is much like the ballot that Academy Award members would fill out. For last year’s rank, click here.

BEST PICTURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “12 Years A Slave”
  2. “Gravity”
  3. “American Hustle”
  4. “The Wolf Of Wall Street”
  5. “Dallas Buyers Club”
  6. “Captain Phillips”
  7. “Nebraska”
  8. “Philomena”
  9. “Her”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “12 Years A Slave”
  2. “Gravity”
  3. “American Hustle”
  4. “Her”
  5. “The Wolf Of Wall Street”
  6. “Captain Phillips”
  7. “Dallas Buyers Club”
  8. “Nebraska”
  9. “Philomena”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
  3. Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years A Slave”
  4. Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
  5. Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years A Slave”
  2. Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
  3. Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
  4. Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
  5. Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
  2. Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
  3. Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
  4. Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”
  5. Judi Dench, “Philomena”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
  2. Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
  3. Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
  4. Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”
  5. Judi Dench, “Philomena”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
  2. Michael Fassbender, “12 Years A Slave”
  3. Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
  4. Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”
  5. Jonah Hill, “The Wolf Of Wall Street”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
  2. Michael Fassbender, “12 Years A Slave”
  3. Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”
  4. Jonah Hill, “The Wolf Of Wall Street”
  5. Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years A Slave”
  2. Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
  3. June Squibb, “Nebraska”
  4. Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”
  5. Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years A Slave”
  2. Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
  3. Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”
  4. Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
  5. June Squibb, “Nebraska”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Frozen”
  2. “The Wind Rises”
  3. “Despicable Me 2”
  4. “The Croods”
  5. “Ernest And Celestine”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Frozen”
  2. “Ernest And Celestine”
  3. “The Wind Rises”
  4. “The Croods”
  5. “Despicable Me 2”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”, Emmanuel Lubezki
  2. “Nebraska”, Phedon Papamichael
  3. “Inside Llewyn Davis”, Bruno Delbonnel
  4. “Prisoners”, Roger A. Deakins
  5. “The Grandmaster”, Philippe Le Sourd
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”, Emmanuel Lubezki
  2. “Inside Llewyn Davis”, Bruno Delbonnel
  3. “Prisoners”, Roger A. Deakins
  4. “The Grandmaster”, Philippe Le Sourd
  5. “Nebraska”, Phedon Papamichael

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Great Gatsby”
  2. “American Hustle”
  3. “12 Years A Slave”
  4. “The Invisible Woman”
  5. “The Grandmaster”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “The Great Gatsby”
  2. “American Hustle”
  3. “The Invisible Woman”
  4. “12 Years A Slave”
  5. “The Grandmaster”

BEST DIRECTING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
  2. Steve McQueen, “12 Years A Slave”
  3. David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
  4. Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf Of Wall Street”
  5. Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Steve McQueen, “12 Years A Slave”
  2. Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
  3. Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf Of Wall Street”
  4. David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
  5. Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “20 Feet From Stardom”
  2. “The Act Of Killing”
  3. “The Square”
  4. “Dirty Wars”
  5. “Cutie And The Boxer”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “The Act Of Killing”
  2. “The Square”
  3. “20 Feet From Stardom”
  4. “Cutie And The Boxer”
  5. “Dirty Wars”

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
  2. “Kamara Has No Walls”
  3. “Facing Fear”
  4. “Cave Digger”
  5. “Prison Terminal: The Last Days Of Private Jack Hall”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Prison Terminal: The Last Days Of Private Jack Hall”
  2. “The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
  3. “Cave Digger”
  4. “Facing Fear”
  5. “Kamara Has No Walls”

BEST FILM EDITING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”, Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
  2. “American Hustle”, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
  3. “Captain Phillips”, Christopher Rouse
  4. “12 Years A Slave”, Joe Walker
  5. “Dallas Buyers Club”, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”, Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
  2. “12 Years A Slave”, Joe Walker
  3. “American Hustle”, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
  4. “Captain Phillips”, Christopher Rouse
  5. “Dallas Buyers Club”, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Great Beauty”
  2. “The Broken Circle Breakdown”
  3. “The Hunt”
  4. “Omar”
  5. “The Missing Picture”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “The Broken Circle Breakdown”
  2. “Omar”
  3. “The Hunt”
  4. “The Great Beauty”
  5. “The Missing Picture”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Dallas Buyers Club”
  2. “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”
  3. “The Lone Ranger”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Dallas Buyers Club”
  2. “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”
  3. “The Lone Ranger”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”, Steven Price
  2. “Her”, William Butler and Owen Pallett
  3. “Philomena”, Alexandre Desplat
  4. “The Book Thief”, John Williams
  5. “Saving Mr. Banks”, Thomas Newman
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”, Steven Price
  2. “Her”, William Butler and Owen Pallett
  3. “The Book Thief”, John Williams
  4. “Saving Mr. Banks”, Thomas Newman
  5. “Philomena”, Alexandre Desplat

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Let It Go” from “Frozen”
  2. “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom”
  3. “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”
  4. “The Moon Song” from “Her”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Let It Go” from “Frozen”
  2. “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom”
  3. “The Moon Song” from “Her”
  4. “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Great Gatsby”
  2. “Gravity”
  3. “12 Years A Slave”
  4. “Her”
  5. “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “The Great Gatsby”
  2. “Her”
  3. “12 Years A Slave”
  4. “Gravity”
  5. “American Hustle”

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Get A Horse!”
  2. “Feral”
  3. “Room On The Broom”
  4. “Mr. Hublot”
  5. “Possessions”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Get A Horse!”
  2. “Mr. Hublot”
  3. “Room On The Broom”
  4. “Possessions”
  5. “Feral”

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Voorman Problem”
  2. “Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)”
  3. “Helium”
  4. “Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)”
  5. “Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)”
  2. “The Voorman Problem”
  3. “Helium”
  4. “Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)”
  5. “Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)”

BEST SOUND EDITING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”
  2. “Captain Phillips”
  3. “All Is Lost”
  4. “Lone Survivor”
  5. “The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”
  2. “Lone Survivor”
  3. “All Is Lost”
  4. “The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug”
  5. “Captain Phillips”

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”
  2. “Inside Llewyn Davis”
  3. “Captain Phillips”
  4. “Lone Survivor”
  5. “The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”
  2. “Inside Llewyn Davis”
  3. “Lone Survivor”
  4. “The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug”
  5. “Captain Phillips”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”
  2. “The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug”
  3. “Iron Man 3”
  4. “Star Trek Into Darkness”
  5. “The Lone Ranger”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Gravity”
  2. “Iron Man 3”
  3. “Star Trek Into Darkness”
  4. “The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug”
  5. “The Lone Ranger”

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “12 Years A Slave”, John Ridley
  2. “Before Midnight”, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
  3. “Philomena”, Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
  4. “The Wolf Of Wall Street”, Terrence Winter
  5. “Captain Phillips”, Billy Ray
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “12 Years A Slave”, John Ridley
  2. “The Wolf Of Wall Street”, Terrence Winter
  3. “Before Midnight”, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
  4. “Captain Phillips”, Billy Ray
  5. “Philomena”, Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “American Hustle”, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
  2. “Her”, Spike Jonze
  3. “Dallas Buyers Club”, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
  4. “Nebraska”, Bob Nelson
  5. “Blue Jasmine”, Woody Allen
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Her”, Spike Jonze
  2. “American Hustle”, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
  3. “Dallas Buyers Club”, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
  4. “Nebraska”, Bob Nelson
  5. “Blue Jasmine”, Woody Allen

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