Tomorrow morning, the Academy will announce the nominees for the 95th Academy Awards. Spoiler alert, there will be snubs. There always is. So mentally prepare yourself now. The guilds and critics, general audiences, and film industry professionals never align one hundred percent. That’s why guessing who will get nominated is fun, and surprises are usually enjoyable.
This year, I see “The Banshess of Inisherin” being a heavy favorite in many categories, including Best Picture. The critical darling “Everything Everywhere All At Once” may not get as much love as it has been getting this awards season, but I see Ke Huy Quan as the favorite in the Supporting Actor category. Other multiple-nominee films will likely be “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Fabelmans,” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” Unlike many groups, I see “Babylon” landing in a few more places than it has been, including Best Picture.
In a few spots, I’m hoping my predictions are wrong. I’m with the majority of film Twitter in wanting Danielle Deadwyler to be honored for her performance in “Till.” Still, my gut is telling me this is where Michelle Williams will finally get in for “The Fabelmans.” I also want to see Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu get nominations for their supporting work in “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” but I went with my gut that it’ll be Carey Mulligan and Janelle Monáe.
In the International Film category, I initially had Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” but with “Argentina, 1985,” I went with that one instead. “Last Film Show” is likely a long shot to get in for India, wildly beating out “RRR” for submission, but I’m sticking with my heart. And in Documentary Feature, I initially had “Last Flight Home,” because it feels like it hits all the right emotional notes, but “Moonage Daydream” has been hitting elsewhere. Brett Morgan missed with “Jane,” which should have been the front-runner that year, so anything can happen.
Best Picture
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
“The Banshees of Inishirin”
Searchlight Pictures
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
“Elvis”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
A24
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
“TÁR”
Focus Features
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
“The Whale”
A24
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler
“Elvis”
Warner Bros. Pictures
Colin Farrell
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Brendan Fraser
“The Whale”
A24
Hugh Jackman
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
Bill Nighy
“Living”
Sony Pictures Classics
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Ana de Armas
“Blonde”
Netflix
Cate Blanchett
“TÁR”
Focus Features
Viola Davis
“The Woman King”
TriStar Pictures
Michelle Williams
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
Michelle Yeoh
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Paramount Pictures
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Paul Dano
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
Brendan Gleeson
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Barry Keoghan
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Ke Huy Quan
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
A24
Eddie Redmayne
“The Good Nurse”
Netflix
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
Hong Chau
“The Whale”
A24
Kerry Condon
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Janelle Monáe
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
Carey Mulligan
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“The Bad Guys”
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Netflix
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
A24
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks
“Turning Red”
Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Russell Carpenter
20th Century Studios
“Babylon”
Linus Sandgren
Paramount Pictures
“Empire of Light”
Roger Deakins
Searchlight Pictures
“The Fabelmans”
Janusz Kaminski
Universal Pictures
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Claudio Miranda
Paramount Pictures
COSTUME DESIGN
“Babylon”
Mary Zophres
Paramount Pictures
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Ruth E. Carter
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
“Elvis”
Catherine Martin
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Jenny Beavan
Focus Features
“The Woman King”
Gersha Phillips
TriStar Pictures
DIRECTING
Todd Field
“TÁR”
Focus Features
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
Baz Luhrmann
“Elvis”
Warner Bros. Pictures
Martin McDonagh
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Steven Spielberg
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
“All That Breathes”
Sideshow / Submarine Deluxe
“All The Beauty and the Bloodshed”
Neon
“Fire of Love”
Neon / National Geographic Documentary Films
“Moonage Daydream”
Neon
“Navalny”
Warner Bros. Pictures / CNN Films
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
“The Elephant Whisperers”
Netflix
“Haulout”
The New Yorker Documentary
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
Netflix
“Nuisance Bear”
The New Yorker Documentary
“Shut Up and Paint”
PBS
FILM EDITING
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Stephen Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua, James Cameron
20th Century Studios
“Babylon”
Tom Cross
Paramount Pictures
“Elvis”
Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Paul Rogers
A24
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Eddie Hamilton
Paramount Pictures
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
(Germany)
Netflix
“Argnetina, 1985”
(Argentina)
Amazon Studios
“Corsage”
(Austria)
IFC Films
“Decision to Leave”
(South Korea)
Focus Features
“Last Film Show”
(India)
Samuel Goldwyn Films
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
“The Batman”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
“Elvis”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“The Whale”
A24
ORIGINAL SCORE
“Babylon”
Justin Hurwitz
Paramount Pictures
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Carter Burwell
Searchlight Pictures
“The Fabelmans”
John Williams
Universal Pictures
Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio”
Alexandre Desplat
Netflix
“Women Talking”
Hildur Guðnadóttir
MGM / United Artists Releasing
ORIGINAL SONG
“Lift Me Up”
from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Performed by Rihanna
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
“Ciao Papa”
from Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio”
Netflix
“Naatu Naatu”
from “RRR”
Variance Films
“Applause”
from “Tell It like a Woman”
Written by Diane Warren
Focus Features
“Hold My Hand”
from “Top Gun: Maverick”
Performed by Lady Gaga
Paramount Pictures
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
“Elvis”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
“Black Slide”
The Hive Studio
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
BBC / Apple TV+
“New Moon”
Edith Productions
“Passenger”
Zaramello
“Save Ralph”
Blue-Tongue Films / Humane Society International / Vespa Pictures
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
“Almost Home”
Nils Keller
“Le Pupille”
Alice Rohrwacher
“The Lone Wolf”
Filipe Melo
“Night Ride”
Eirik Tveiten
“Warsha”
Dania Bdeir
SOUND
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Netflix
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
“The Batman”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Elvis”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
“The Batman”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios
“Nope”
Universal Pictures
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson
Netflix
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Rian Johnson
Netflix
“She Said”
Rebecca Lenkiewicz
Universal Pictures
“The Whale”
Samuel D. Hunter
A24
“Women Talking”
Sarah Polley
MGM / United Artists Releasing
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Martin McDonagh
Searchlight Pictures
“Decision to Leave”
Martin McDonagh
MUBI
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
A24
“The Fabelmans”
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
Universal Pictures
“TÁR”
Todd Field
Focus Features
BREAKDOWN
| “The Banshees of Inishirin” | 8 nominations |
| “Elvis” | 8 nominations |
| “Babylon” | 7 nominations |
| “The Fabelmans” | 7 nominations |
| “Top Gun: Maverick” | 7 nominations |
| “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 6 nominations |
| “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | 6 nominations |
| “Everything Everywhere All At Once” | 6 nominations |
| “The Whale” | 5 nominations |
| “TÁR” | 4 nominations |
| “All Quiet on the Western Front” | 3 nominations |
| “The Batman” | 3 nominations |
| “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | 3 nominations |
| “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | 3 nominations |
| “Decision to Leave” | 2 nominations |
| “She Said” | 2 nominations |
| “The Woman King” | 2 nominations |
| “Women Talking” | 2 nominations |
| “All That Breathes” | 1 nomination |
| “All The Beauty and the Bloodshed” | 1 nomination |
| “Argentina 1985” | 1 nomination |
| “The Bad Guys” | 1 nomination |
| “Blonde” | 1 nomination |
| “Corsage” | 1 nomination |
| “Empire of Light” | 1 nomination |
| “Fire of Love” | 1 nomination |
| “The Good Nurse” | 1 nomination |
| “Last Film Show” | 1 nomination |
| “Living” | 1 nomination |
| “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” | 1 nomination |
| “Moonage Daydream” | 1 nomination |
| “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | 1 nomination |
| “Navalny” | 1 nomination |
| “Nope” | 1 nomination |
| “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” | 1 nomination |
| “RRR” | 1 nomination |
| “The Son” | 1 nomination |
| “Tell It like a Woman” | 1 nomination |
| “Turning Red” | 1 nomination |
