We are now merely four months away from the 96th Academy Awards, barring any setbacks with the SAG-AFTRA strike. A majority of the major contenders have screened already, whether at festivals or in theaters, so it seems only natural to start speculating what may end up getting nominated. Having not seen all the films yet myself, a lot of this is simply conjecture from what I’ve heard, along with my expectations of the movie. Granted, I may see them and change my opinion. But, in the meantime, I’ve tossed together my best guesses.
This year, the big three feel like “Oppenheimer,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and “Barbie.” In most of the big categories, it’s easy to place them as frontrunners because not only were they at the top of the Hollywood conversation this year, but two of the three had prolific box office numbers as well. “The Holdovers,” “Maestro,” and “Poor Things” are three films I have not seen yet but have been receiving great word-of-mouth and, at least from the trailers, look to be right up the Academy’s alley. Less talked about are “American Fiction” and “Napoleon,” which also feel like average Academy fare. Since my expectations for “Napoleon” are high, that led me to put it in more categories than most people have been. “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” both won at the 76th Cannes Film Festival, which leads me to believe they will, in turn, be Oscar contenders.
Although I enjoyed them, I’m a little lower on believing “Past Lives” or “Air” will get nominated for much, and while I haven’t seen them, “Saltburn” and “Ferrari” both feel like films that will have a more significant impact than pundits are projecting currently. I know extremely little about “May December” and “All Of Us Strangers,” so my expectations are tempered on those for the time being. I also hope there is more love for “Priscilla” and “Asteroid City” when the voting time comes.
“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures
“ANATOMY OF A FALL”
Neon
“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“THE HOLDOVERS”
Focus Features
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“MAESTRO”
Netflix
“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“OPPENHEIMER”
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures
“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
A24
ON THE BUBBLE
“PAST LIVES”
A24
“THE COLOR PURPLE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“SALTBURN”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
“FERRARI”
Neon
“AIR”
Amazon Studios
“SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE”
Sony + Columbia Pictures
“MAY DECEMBER”
Netflix
“ALL OF US STRANGERS”
Searchlight Pictures
BRADLEY COOPER
“Maestro”
Netflix
LEONARDO DICAPRIO
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
CILLIAN MURPHY
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
JOAQUIN PHEONIX
“Napoleon”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
JEFFREY WRIGHT
“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
PAUL GIAMATTI
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features
COLMAN DOMINGO
“Rustin”
Netflix
ANDREW SCOTT
“All Of Us Stranger”
Searchlight Pictures
BARRY KEOGHAN
“Saltburn”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
ADAM DRIVER
“Ferrari”
Neon
Michael Fassbender
“The Killer”
Netflix
Nicolas Cage
“Dream Scenario”
A24
LILY GLADSTONE
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
CAREY MULLIGAN
“Maestro”
Netflix
MARGOT ROBBIE
“Barbie”
Warner Bros. Pictures
CAILEE SPAENY
“Priscilla”
A24
EMMA STONE
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
Sandra Hüller
“Anatomy of a Fall”
Neon
Greta Lee
“Past Lives”
A24
Fantasia Barrino
“The Color Purple”
Warner Bros. Pictures
Annette Bening
“Nyad”
Netflix
Aunjanue Ellis
“Origin”
Neon
Natalie Portman
“May December”
Netflix
Teyana Taylor
“A Thousand and One”
Focus Features
ROBERT DE NIRO
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
ROBERT DOWNEY JR.
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
RYAN GOSLING
“Barbie”
Warner Bros. Pictures
JESSE PLEMONS
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
MARK RUFFALO
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
WILLEM DAFOE
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures
Dominic Sessa
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features
Charles Melton
“May December”
Netflix
COLMAN DOMINGO
“The Color Purple”
Warner Bros. Pictures
MATT DAMON
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
John Magaro
“Past Lives”
A24
Glenn Howerton
“BlackBerry”
Elevation Pictures
Sterling K. Brown
“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures
EMILY BLUNT
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
DANIELLE BROOKS
“The Color Purple”
Warner Bros. Pictures
PENELOPE CRUZ
“Ferrari”
Neon
VANESSA KIRBY
“Napoleon”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features
ON THE BUBBLE
Taraji P. Henson
“The Color Purple”
Warner Bros. Pictures
Viola Davis
“Air”
Amazon Studios
Jodie Foster
“Nyad”
Netflix
Julianne Moore
“May December”
Netflix
Rosamund Pike
“Saltburn”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
Sandra Hüller
“The Zone of Interest”
A24
Scarlett Johansson
“Asteroid City”
Focus Features
Florence Pugh
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
“THE BOY AND THE HERON”
Studio Ghibli
“ELEMENTAL”
Pixar Animation + Walt Disney Pictures
“SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE”
Sony + Columbia Pictures
“THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE”
Illumination Entertainment + Universal Pictures
“WISH”
Walt Disney Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“Nimona”
Netflix
“Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget”
Netflix
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
Paramount Pictures
“The Peasants”
Breakthru Films
“Suzume”
Crunchyroll
“Trolls Band Together”
DreamWorks Animation
“Migration”
Illumination Entertainment +
Universal Pictures
***NO PREDICTIONS YET***
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Rodrigo Prieto
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“MAESTRO”
Matthew Libatique
Netflix
“OPPENHEIMER”
Hoyte van Hoytema
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Robbie Ryan
Searchlight Pictures
“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
Łukasz Żal
A24
ON THE BUBBLE
“NAPOLEON”
Dariusz Wolski
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“THE COLOR PURPLE”
Dan Laustsen
Warner Bros. Pictures
“SALTBURN”
Linus Sandgren
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
“EL CONDE”
Edward Lachman
Netflix
“THE KILLER”
Erik Messerschmidt
Netflix
“Barbie”
Rodrigo Prieto
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Asteroid City”
Robert Yeoman
Focus Features
“BARBIE”
Jacqueline Durran
Warner Bros. Pictures
“THE COLOR PURPLE”
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
Warner Bros. Pictures
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Jacqueline West
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“OPPENHEIMER”
Ellen Mirojnick
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Holly Waddington
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“Priscilla”
Stacey Battat
A24
“Napoleon”
Janty Yates
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“Wonka”
Lindy Hemming
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Maestro”
Mark Bridges
Netflix
“Chevalier”
Oliver Garcia
Searchlight Pictures
“Guardians of the Galaxy
Vol. 3″
Judianna Makovsky
Walt Disney. Pictures
“Asteroid City”
Milena Canonero
Focus Features
GRETA GERWIG
“Barbie”
Warner Bros. Pictures
JONATHAN GLAZER
“The Zone Of Interest”
A24
YORGOS LANTHIMOS
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
MARTIN SCORSESE
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
ON THE BUBBLE
Alexander Payne
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features
Bradley Cooper
“Maestro”
Netflix
Justine Triet
“Anatomy of a Fall”
Neon
Celine Song
“Past Lives”
A24
Ava DuVernay
“Origin”
Neon
Cord Jefferson
“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures
Ridley Scott
“Napoleon”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL”
PBS Distribution
“BEYOND UTOPIA”
Roadside Attractions
“THE DEEPEST BREATH”
Netflix
“FOUR DAUGHTERS”
Kino Lorber
“STILL: A MICHAEL J. FOX MOVIE”
Apple TV+
ON THE BUBBLE
“Stamped From The Beginning”
Netflix
“The Eternal Memory”
MTV Documentary Films
“A Still Small Voice”
Abramorama
“Our Body”
The Cinema Guild
“Silver Dollar Road”
Columbia Pictures
“The Mother of All Lies”
Insight Films
“THE MISSION”
National Geographic
“Little Richard: I Am Everything”
Magnolia Pictures
“BARBIE”
Nick Houy
Warner Bros. Pictures
“FERRARI”
Pietro Scalia
Neon
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Thelma Schoonmaker
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“OPPENHEIMER”
Jennifer Lame
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“The Holdovers”
Kevin Tent
Focus Features
“Maestro”
Michelle Tesoro
Netflix
“Anatomy Of A Fall”
Laurent Sénéchal
Neon
“AIR”
William Goldenberg
Amazon Studios
“The Killer”
Kirk Baxter
Netflix
“Past Lives”
Keith Fraase
A24
“NAPOLEON”
Claire Simpson & Sam Restivo
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“THE PEASANTS”
Poland
Breakthru Films
“THE PROMISED LAND”
Denmark
Magnolia Pictures
“SOCIETY OF THE SNOW”
Spain
Netflix
“THE TASTE OF THINGS”
France
Curiosa Films
“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
United Kingdom
A24
ON THE BUBBLE
“PERFECT DAYS”
Japan
MUBI
“THE TEACHERS’ LOUNGE”
Germany
ARTE
“ABOUT DRY GRASSES”
Turkey
Memento Films
“FALLEN LEAVES”
Finland
MUBI
“TÓTEM”
Mexico
Sideshow + Janus Films
“THE SETTLERS”
Chile
Quijote Films
“THE MONK AND THE GUN”
Bhutan
Closer Media
“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Guardians Of The Galaxy
Vol. 3″
Marvel + Walt Disney Pictures
“MAESTRO”
Netflix
“Napoleon”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“Nyad”
Netflix
“Priscilla”
A24
“Golda”
Bleecker Street
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
“Ferrari”
Neon
“THE COLOR PURPLE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“ASTEROID CITY”
Alexandre Desplat
Focus Features
“THE KILLER”
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Netflix
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Robbie Robertson
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“OPPENHEIMER”
Ludwig Göransson
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Jerskin Fendrix
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“PAST LIVES”
Christopher Bear & Daniel Rossen
A24
“ELEMENTAL”
Thomas Newman
Pixar Animation + Walt Disney Pictures
“NAPOLEON”
Martin Phipps
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“THE BOY AND THE HERON”
Joe Hisaishi
Studio Ghibli
“SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE”
Daniel Pemberton
Sony + Columbia Pictures
“INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY”
John Williams
Walt Disney Pictures
“CARMEN”
Nicholas Britell
Sony Pictures Classics
“SOCIETY OF THE SNOW”
Michael Giacchino
Netflix
“I’m Just Ken”
from “Barbie”
Performed by Ryan Gosling
Warner Bros. Pictures
“What Was I Made For?”
from “Barbie”
Performed by Billie Eilish
Warner Bros. Pictures
“CAN’T CATCH ME NOW”
from “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes”
Performed by Olivia Rodrigo
Lionsgate
“Peaches”
from “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
Performed by Jack Black
Illumination Entertainment + Universal Pictures
“THIS WISH”
from “Wish”
Performed by Ariana DeBose
Walt Disney Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“Quiet Eyes”
from “Past Lives”
Performed by Sharon Van Etten
A24
“Steal The Show”
from “Elemental”
Performed by Lauv
Pixar Animation + Walt Disney Pictures
“Keep It Movin'”
from “The Color Purple”
Performed by Halle Bailey, Blu June, Brittany Coney, Morten Ristorp, & Phylicia Pearl Mpasi
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Gonna Be You”
from “80 for Brady”
by Dolly Parton, Belinda Carlisle, Cyndi Lauper, Gloria Estefan and Debbie Harry Written by Diane Warren
Paramount Pictures
“A World Of Your Own”
from “Wonka”
Performed by Timothée Chalamet
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Am I Dreaming?”
from “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Performed by Metro Boomin, A$AP Rocky & Roisee
Sony + Columbia Pictures
“Road To Freedom”
from “Rustin”
Performed by Lenny Kravitz
Netflix
“Dance The Night”
from “Barbie”
by Dua Lipa
Warner Bros. Pictures
“ASTEROID CITY”
Focus Features
“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“OPPENHEIMER”
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“THE COLOR PURPLE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“WONKA”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“FERRARI”
Neon
“SALTBURN”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
“MAESTRO”
Netflix
“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
A24
***NO PREDICTIONS YET***
***NO PREDICTIONS YET***
“THE COLOR PURPLE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Ferrari”
Neon
“MAESTRO”
Netflix
“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“OPPENHEIMER”
Universal Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“The Killer”
Netflix
“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
A24
“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE”
Sony + Columbia Pictures
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
Paramount Pictures
“John Wick: Chapter 4”
Lionsgate
“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“The Creator”
20th Century Studios
“Guardians Of The Galaxy
Vol. 3″
Marvel + Walt Disney Pictures
“OPPENHEIMER”
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures
ON THE BUBBLE
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“WONKA”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“John Wick: Chapter 4”
Lionsgate
“INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY”
Walt Disney Pictures
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
Paramount Pictures
“Ferrari”
Neon
“American Fiction”
Written by Cord Jefferson
Based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett
Orion Pictures
“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Written by Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese
Based on “Killers of the Flower Moon” by by David Grann
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films
“OPPENHEIMER”
Written by Christopher Nolan
Based on “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird & Martin J. Sherwin
Universal Pictures
“POOR THINGS”
Written by Tony McNamara
Based on “Poor Things” by Alasdair Gray
Searchlight Pictures
“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
Written by Jonathan Glazer
Based on “The Zone of Interest” by Martin Amis
A24
ON THE BUBBLE
“ALL OF US STRANGERS”
Written by Andrew Haigh
Searchlight Pictures
“PRISCILLA”
Written by Sofia Coppola
A24
“THE COLOR PURPLE”
Written by Marcus Gardley
Warner Bros. Pictures
“The Killer”
Written by Andrew Kevin Walker
Netflix
“SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE”
Written by Phil Lord, Christopher Miller & Dave Callaham
Sony + Columbia Pictures
“THE TASTE OF THINGS”
Written by Trần Anh Hung
Curiosa Films
“ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME, MARGARET”
Written by Kelly Fremon Craig
Lionsgate
“DUMB MONEY”
Written by Rebecca Angelo & Lauren Shuker Blum
Sony + Columbia Pictures
“ANATOMY OF A FALL”
Written by Justine Triet & Arthur Harari
Neon
“BARBIE”
Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
Warner Bros. Pictures
“THE HOLDOVERS”
Written by David Hemingson
Focus Features
“MAESTRO”
Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
Netflix
“PAST LIVES”
Written by Celine Song
A24
ON THE BUBBLE
“Asteroid City”
Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
Focus Features
“AIR”
Written by Alex Convery
Amazon Studios
“SALTBURN”
Written by Emerald Fennell
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
“NAPOLEON”
Written by David Scarpa
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films
“MAY DECEMBER”
Written by Samy Burch
Netflix
“RUSTIN”
Written by Julian Breece & Dustin Lance Black
Netflix
“FAIR PLAY”
Written by Chloe Domont
Netflix
“THE BOY AND THE HERON”
Written by Hayao Miyazaki
Studio Ghibli
