Another year of watching all the Oscar-nominated films has come and gone. It’s great to see so many of my favorites be recognized, but only one film can win each category. The Academy tends to like spreading the love, so don’t expect too much consoldation of wins to any few films, but expect many films to win across the board. “Anora,” “Wicked,” and “Conclave” are three films that I feel the Academy will try and get a few awards. It also feels like “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” are bound to win some awards as well. As of these predictions, I have “A Complete Unknown” and “Nosferatu” coming up empty-handed. As with most years, the predicting game is hard and you often can’t account for surprises. As we close the book on the year in movies, 2024, here is my best effort, compiling my personal preference, what pundits are predicting, and what has won throughout the entire awards season.

Thankfully, I get to go with my heart, my gut, and the consensus when I pick “Anora” to win Best Picture. It was my favorite film of the year and I would love to see it honored. It won the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Writers Guild Awards, as well as the Critics Choice and Film Independent Spirit Awards. The two main places it didn’t win were the BAFTAs, which you could argue skews toward the subject matter of “Conclave,” and the Screen Actors Guild Ensemble Award, which, if you break “Anora” down, there’s really a central performance and few good supporitng ones, whereas “Conclave” is stacked with great performances. Remeber that the Golden Globes awarded “Emilia Pérez” and “The Brutalist,” which feels so long ago. Could a surprise be on the horizon? I hope not. But crazier things have happened at the Oscars.

Adrien Brody is the name that was penciled in the most ballots for most of the awards season. He was winning everywhere, the film was reaping praise, and then Timothée Chalamet won at the Screen Actors Guild and everyone started screaming, “the sky is falling!” Will Chalamet pull off the Oscars upset? I tend to think not, the Academy skews toward the older actor when it comes to a heated race. Brody has won before, which could change things, in which case Ralph Fiennes could have pull off the dark horse victory, as he has never won and carries “Conclave,” which is arguably the second hottest title in the Best Picture race. This category has surprised before.

Best Actress in a Leading Role is singlehandedly the one category I’m going against everything I want from the Oscars and going with what I think will happen. I want Mikey Madison to win because “Anora” was my favorite film of the year, due mainly to Madison’s performance. She’s a fresh new star and her breakthrough deserves to be awarded. That said, the Academy loves to honor the career rather than the single performance. Demi Moore’s storied career leading to this resurgent performance is one for the ages. If you look at the past decade of winners, most of them are the older actresses that beat out the younger ones. Emma Stone won last year, but she was up against Lily Gladstone, and as they’re both younger, it’s hard to use that win as an outlier. There is a groundswell pulling for Fernanda Torres. If the Academy doesn’t want to award the young actress or the horror performance, they may go for the surprise nominee in the Best Picture contender, Torres.

There was no cleaner sweep this awards season than Kieran Culkin winning for his performance in “A Real Pain.” It may not have been my favorite performance in the category, but there’s no denying that Culkin is a talented actor that deserves praise and I find this win as a way for the voting bodies to award him for the actor that he is, rather than on merit of the performance.

Zoe Saldaña had a clean sweep this awards season, winning almost all the precursors. Some believe Ariana Grande to still have a chance, because they believe “Wicked” is beloved by the Oscar voters. But Grande’s performance is based off that of a Broadway play while Saldaña is delivering something completely new.

In a world where small animated titles go against big budget studio titles, I would much rather see a film like “Flow,” which pushes boundaries and comes from small beginnings, win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. But all signs point to “The Wild Robot” taking the award. It has won most of the precursors and the Academy tends to steer toward the more well-known fare. It was a great film and deserving of the Oscar, but in a year with such a humble film as “Flow,” I’d rather see that get the attention.

Cinematography might be one of the toughest categories to predict this year, as the precursors have been all over the place. My pick is “The Brutalist,” because from the first shot of the Statue of Liberty, Lol Crawley is making interesting decisions that set the film apart. The BAFTAs and British Society of Cinematographers agreed. However, the Critics Choice Awards went with “Nosferatu,” which I would love to see win (as I have it projected to win nothing) and the American Society Of Cinematographers gave their award to Edward Lachman for “Maria,” and muddied up the path even more. In the end, I see “The Brutalist” winning some awards, and this feels like the more likely of them.

“Wicked” will be honored, it is just a matter of where. As the costumes are so iconic, especially deriving from “The Wizard of Oz” and the beloved stage play of “Wicked,” I see Paul Tazewell taking home the prize on that basis alone. Add to that the BAFTAs and Critics Choice honoring the film in those categories and it’s the strongest contender. The Costume Designers Guild have three awards they hand out, one of which went to “Wicked” while the other two went to “Conclave” and “Nosferatu.” As “Conclave” is a Best Picture hopeful, I would say it has the second strongest odds.

If “The Brutalist” had any steam at all, I could see Brady Corbet as a stronger competitor in the Best Directing category. But since I see “Anora” winning Best Picture, I see Sean Baker following suit. When Corbet won at the Golden Globes, I got the feeling his speech rubbed people the wrong way. Meanwhile, Sean Baker is a more established director and “Anora” is his most accessible feature yet. He won the Directors Guild Award, which often corelates to an Oscar win, especially if their feature is leading to win Best Picture.

The Documentary Feature category is one I feel strongly about this year. “No Other Land” should be the winner and I hope it gets more eyes on the film. As someone who never fully understood the conflict between Israel and Palestine, this film lays it out in such a perfect way, that anyone who doesn’t understand what’s happening can see it firsthand, through the eyes of a local. Now that the President has made this topic even more sensitive, it should allow the Academy to lift its message up. “Porcelain War” is also a documentary that stuck with me these past few years, as it follows a group of everyday Ukranian people that become soldiers in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The President just recently made this more sensitive as well, but since the Academy finished voting before that happened, I believe this will be the poltiical documentary that gets the attention.

For Best Documentary Short Film, I’m going with the film I was most entertained by in “The Only Girl In The Orchestra.” The documentary’s subject was delightful and it was one documentary I felt could have been a feature and I still would have been interested. The consensus says “I Am Ready, Warden” will be the winner. However, of all the shorts, that one felt the most exploitative. It asks you to feel bad for a man on death row, despite that man having committed murder. It brings to like the ethicality of the death penalty, which is a topic that should be discussed, but overall, I didn’t feel like the subject was handled properly. “Incident” was also a timely documentary composed of body cam footage and surveillance cameras in a Chicago shooting of black man by police. It, too, raises concerning topics that should be discussed. But I feel like there was a better way to put the footage together, as their are long stretches of silence where a simple score could have been placed.

When I stare down the nominees in Best Film Editing, the one that stands out is “Conclave.” The film’s pacing rises above the others, as it creates interest and intrigue from a bunch of Catholic cardinals voting on should be their next Pope. One could argue that there isn’t enough editing in “The Brutalist,” with its lengthy run-time. And none of the other nominees are necessarily “made” by their editing. They work for other reasons and not necessarily because of how they were cut.

With the backlash toward “Emilia Pérez” because of one of its stars, it is easy to turn away from it as winning Best International Feature, despite it having all the steam before the drama started. I’m going to go with the narrative that most Oscar voters either don’t care about the drama or recognize that one person should not be allowed to derail an entire film. I think they liked the film better and will go for it. The opposite narrative puts “I’m Still Here,” which surprised as Best Picture and Best Actress in a Leading Role nominees and could have enough support to see it win here. Personally, I’d rather see “Flow” win, since it likely won’t win Best Animated Feature.

Listen, “Wicked” could easily take this award if the Academy is focused on that film all night. But, if we go with the most deserving film, it would go to “The Substance.” The BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild all thought the same thing, so it would be a little silly if it didn’t end up winning the Oscar.

Best Original Score was a tough decision to make. “Conclave” was my favorite score of the year, but “The Brutalist” score stood out as well. “Challengers” was the big winner at most of the awards, but as it wasn’t nominated by the Academy, the next likely winner would be “The Brutalist,” as it won at the BAFTAs, which, despite giving their top honor to “Conclave,” still awarded Daniel Blumberg over Volker Bertelmann.

Despite the negativity brought toward “Emilia Pérez” because of Karla Sofía Gascón’s internet comments, I still believe it will end up winning for Best Original Song. “El Mal” is the better of the two nominated songs and as it has won more of the awards leading up to the Oscars, it is my pick. On pure favorability, “The Journey” is the most enjoyable song of the bunch. Could this be year that Diane Warren wins a legitimate Oscar? It did win at the Society of Composers & Lyricists

Often times, it feels like the Academy consoladates certain categories, like the Costume Design and Production Design categories, which can go to the same film. “Wicked” feels like a film the Academy will honor in the tech categories and for that, Production Design/Costume Design seem like the places to do it. My pick would be “The Brutalist,” because it is literally a film about the unique design of buildings. But, “Wicked” won the Art Directors Guild. I wouldn’t completely count out “Conclave” either, as it won the Set Decorators Society Awards.

Personally, I believe that none of the animated short films were stand outs this year. “Yuck!” was fun but a bit shallow. “In The Shadow of the Cypress” was gorgeously drawn but too contemptative. The pundits believe the winner will be “Beautiful Men,” but I’m not sure why, because I found it perplexing. “Wander To Wonder” was also strange, but it stood out more as one that could win. It was also the winner of a few festivals, which intially put it on my radar. It also has some famous voice talent, which never hurts get these films some extra attention.

All awards season, prior to watching the shorts, I thought for sure that “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” was the clear winner. It was winning at festivals and it was the one title that was constantly present. However, after I watched the films, “A Lien” stood out the most. It is timely, high anxiety short about ICE agents baiting illegal immigrants to processing meetings and arresting them for deportation. It’s a film that needs some attention and I hope the Academy does the right thing.

In prior years, it often feels like the winner of Sound is also the loudest film of the year. And we’d bestoy that honor to “Dune: Part Two.” However, I also believe the Academy may be looking for ways to award “Wicked,” if they liked it as much as it seems they did. It also won the Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards main award. “A Complete Unknown” won the main award from the Cinema Audio Society, so that’s a dark horse as well. But my bet is on the volume and “Dune: Part Two.”

Are the giant sandworms enough to win “Dune: Part Two” the award for Best Visual Effects? I think so. The first “Dune” won this category as well, but that could potentially work against “Part Two,” as the Academy may feel it’s already been awarded. “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” also just won the Visual Effects Society’s main award, while “Dune: Part Two” won some ancillary awards from the group. In the end, I feel like the Best Picture nominee will end up winning.

“Conclave” won almost everywhere in the Adapted Screenplay category. It’s the closest thing to a sweep in this category, especially now that it might have its sights set on winning Best Picture, after winning the ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild.

“Anora” is my pick for Best Original Screenplay. For the longest time, I believed it would be Jesse Eisenberg and “A Real Pain,” and it still very well could. It has won in a few places, including the BAFTAs and the Film Independent Spirit Awards. However, “Anora” just won the Writers Guild and it has a corresponding Best Picture nomination (and favorite to win), which gives it the advantage. If an upset in Best Picture is to be foreshadowed, it might start here. “The Substance” is also a dark horse in this category.