Tomorrow morning, the nominees for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced, officially kicking off my 17th annual Oscars Challenge. Before every nomination morning, I like to take a stab at what I think will get in. I’ve already seen a good number of the films and have been closely following awards season, so I have a fairly clear sense of the field and the performances in play. I also follow several pundits and keep my ear to the ground on what’s gaining momentum — and what isn’t.

Of course, there are always surprises. Half the fun comes from trying to predict where those curveballs will land. Every year, there’s at least one performance that critics rally behind only for it to miss entirely, and certain Academy branches are notorious for snubbing contenders that once looked like odds-on favorites to win.

One of the biggest questions this year is whether NEON can pull off a clean sweep in the International Feature category. Beyond that, where will the international contenders show up elsewhere on the ballot? Could The Secret Agent or It Was Just an Accident break into Best Picture? Will Jafar Panahi land a Best Director nomination despite limited precursor support? Sirāt appeared on plenty of shortlists — but where, exactly, will it surface?

On a more personal note, I’m a Sinners stan, so I’ll be rooting for it to show up as often as possible. The big question in regards to Sinners is whether it will break the most nominations record. I’m also curious whether One Battle After Another will perform as strongly as predicted across the board. Has Wicked: For Good truly lost as much momentum as pundits suggest? And does Weapons actually stand a chance at multiple nominations despite the Academy’s long-standing resistance to horror?

Some of these predictions come from the heart, others from the head — but below are my picks for the nominees at the 98th Academy Awards.