BEST PICTURE
- “Call Me By Your Name” (PGA, GG, AFI, BAFTA)
- “Dunkirk” (PGA, DGA, GG, AFI, BAFTA)
- “Get Out” (PGA, DGA, SAG, GG, AFI)
- “I, Tonya” (PGA, GG)
- “Lady Bird” (PGA, DGA, SAG, GG, AFI)
- “The Post” (PGA, GG, AFI)
- “The Shape Of Water” (PGA, DGA, GG, AFI, BAFTA)
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (PGA, DGA, SAG, GG, AFI, BAFTA)
Possible Final Slot(s):
- “The Big Sick” (PGA, SAG, AFI)
- “Molly’s Game” (PGA)
- “Mudbound” (SAG)
- “Wonder Woman” (PGA, AFI)
For Best Picture this year, I’m only picking eight, with one of the alternates possibly filling a ninth and possibly tenth spot. The eight I picked all have the Producers Guild Award nomination going for them. That final spot could go to “The Big Sick,” which also has the PGA nomination as well as the SAG Ensemble nomination. “Molly’s Game” only has the PGA nomination but I also see it getting Aaron Sorkin a nomination for writing and if it’s really in the Academy’s favor, Jessica Chastain will pull off a Leading Actress nomination as well. “Wonder Woman” also has the PGA nomination and was included on the AFI’s Top Ten List, which could see it sneak on. The big question mark still is where the Academy lands on the Netflix Original Film “Mudbound,” as previous Netflix films have not fared too well (i.e. “Beasts Of No Nation”). Despite not tons to back it up, I do believe “I, Tonya” will be a little more popular with the Academy, landing Margot Robbie and Allison Janney nominations as well as pulling for it to get a writing nod and probably a makeup nod as well.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
- Timothée Chalamet – “Call Me by Your Name”
- Daniel Day-Lewis – “Phantom Thread”
- James Franco – “The Disaster Artist”
- Daniel Kaluuya – “Get Out”
- Gary Oldman – “Darkest Hour”
Alternates:
- Denzel Washington – “Roman J. Israel, Esq”
The big question here is will James Franco’s vote overcome the recent backlash the actor’s facing since women came forward speaking of his sexual misconduct? If enough voters placed their votes before the news came out, he could easily still land a nomination. Whether the Academy wants to deal with the shit storm that follows is another question. Daniel Kaluuya for “Get Out” is another iffy spot, but I feel like the “Get Out” love will be strong. Denzel Washington also has a SAG and Golden Globe nomination already, so I’m wondering if he could somehow crash the list as well. This is ultimately be down to Oldman Vs. Chalamet.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
- Jessica Chastain – “Molly’s Game”
- Sally Hawkins – “The Shape Of Water”
- France McDormand – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Margot Robbie – “I, Tonya”
- Saoirse Ronan – “Lady Bird”
Alternates:
- Meryl Streep – “The Post”
Pulling for a Jessica Chastain upset over Meryl Streep, however unlikely that may be. We may be in for a surprise here, with one of the main nominees not breaking through. Could Margot Robbie possibly miss the cut? Streep tends to get nominated whether it’s one of her best performances or not, so we’ll have to wait and see on that one. Ultimately, I’m predicting “The Post” to not get as much love as it might have in another year. This is ultimately be down to McDormand Vs. Ronan.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- Willem Dafoe – “The Florida Project”
- Armie Hammer – “Call Me By Your Name”
- Richard Jenkins – “The Shape Of Water”
- Christopher Plummer – “All The Money In The World”
- Sam Rockwell – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Alternates:
- Woody Harrelson – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Plummer got the Golden Globe nomination but seeing as he won for “Beginners” a few years back, they might not be rushing to nominate him again. But with all the controversy surrounding this film, I would be entirely surprised if it didn’t get at least one nomination. You know people saw it. Woody Harrelson would be the obvious alternate choice, with the love for “Three Billboards” fairly strong. This is ultimately be down to Dafoe Vs. Rockwell.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- Mary J. Blige – “Mudbound”
- Holly Hunter – “The Big Sick”
- Allison Janney – “I, Tonya”
- Laurie Metcalf – “Lady Bird”
- Octavia Spencer – “The Shape Of Water”
Alternates:
- Hong Chau – “Downsizing”
As I didn’t care for “Downsizing” that much, this is more wishful thinking in hoping the Academy didn’t like it as much either. Hong Chau did receive the Golden Globe and SAG nominations, so I could easily be wrong here. Again, it all comes down to whether the Academy has softened on Netflix movies yet. Idris Elba probably should have been nominated for “Beasts Of No Nation” the year it came out, but no such luck. Mary J. Blige could meet the same fate. This is ultimately be down to Janney Vs. Metcalf.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- “The Breadwinner”
- “Coco”
- “Despicable Me 3”
- “The LEGO Batman Movie”
- “Loving Vincent”
Alternates:
- “The Boss Baby”
Pulling for “The LEGO Batman Movie” over “The Boss Baby” just because I believe it to be a better movie. Working against that is the fact that “The LEGO Movie” was not nominated in its year. This will be “Coco’s” to lose.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
- “Dear Basketball”
- “Fox And The Whale”
- “In A Heartbeat”
- “Lou”
- “Negative Space”
Alternates:
- “Lost Property Office”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- “Blade Runner 2049” – Roger Deakins
- “Darkest Hour” – Bruno Delbonnel
- “Dunkirk” – Hoyte van Hoytema
- “Mudbound” – Rachel Morrison
- “The Shape of Water” – Dan Laustsen
Alternates:
- Sayombhu Mukdeeprom – “Call Me By Your Name”
Hopefully this is Roger Deakins and in my opinion, with these nominees, it is. His biggest competition will be Hoyte van Hoytema for “Dunkirk” and Dan Laustsen for “The Shape Of Water,” but I think his is the strongest work.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- “Beauty and the Beast” – Jacqueline Durran
- “Blade Runner 2049” – Renée April
- “I, Tonya” – Jennifer Johnson
- “Phantom Thread” – Mark Bridges
- “The Shape of Water” – Luis Sequeira
Alternates:
- “Dunkirk” – Jeffrey Kurland
BEST DIRECTOR
- Guillermo del Toro – “The Shape of Water”
- Greta Gerwig – “Lady Bird”
- Jordan Peele – “Get Out”
- Martin McDonagh – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Christopher Nolan – “Dunkirk”
Alternates:
- Luca Guadagnino – “Call Me By Your Name”
Right now, these picks match the DGA exactly, which probably will not happen. I feel like Guillermo del Toro is the odds-on favorite at the moment, with Greta Gerwig almost assuredly getting a nomination as well. It would be a shame to not see Jordan Peele get a nomination after the season he’s had and I feel like Christopher Nolan for “Dunkirk” has to be another favorite. Martin McDonagh would then be the one director that’s dispensable, but as I feel “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” is a strong contender for Best Picture, he would likely have to be nominated here. Luca Guadagnino is one of the only directors I could see sneaking in here somewhere, but one of these other main contenders would have to go.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- “City Of Ghosts”
- “Faces Places”
- “An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth To Power”
- “Jane”
- “Strong Island”
Alternates:
- “Chasing Coral”
“Jane” and “Faces Places” are the favorites here, having garnered the most attention this awards season. “City Of Ghosts” had its share of attention as well and on paper, sounds like a strong contender. “Strong Island” just took a bunch of documentary-specific awards recently, so it took has attention, plus is available on Netflix, so plenty of people had a chance to see it. I also feel like with the year in the weather that we’ve had, Al Gore’s sequel is a strong contender as could be “Chasing Coral,” which deals with our climate change. However, that last spot is anyone’s guess.
BEST FILM EDITING
- “Baby Driver” – Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos
- “Dunkirk” – Lee Smith
- “Get Out” – Gregory Plotkin
- “The Post” – Michael Kahn & Sarah Broshar
- “The Shape of Water” – Sidney Wolinsky
Alternates:
- “Blade Runner 2049” – Joe Walker
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – Jon Gregory
This is probably going to be the only nomination for “Baby Driver,” but I would be so happy to see it end up here. I had “Blade Runner 2049” getting the nomination, but I feel like if people were complaining it was too long and dragged on, it might not get the votes, so I replaced it with “The Post,” which I’ve heard has some pretty amazing editing in its back half. “Dunkirk” will be one of the biggest competitors in this category, seeing as editing is one of its biggest draws.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FEATURE
- “A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
- “Foxtrot” (Israel)
- “In The Fade” (Germany)
- “Loveless” (Russia)
- “The Square” (Sweden)
Alternates:
- “On Body And Soul” (Hungary)
“The Square” and “In The Fade,” which won at the Golden Globes, are the favorites here, having the most star power and the widest reach as far as hitting theaters and being talked about. “Loveless” has gotten some awards attention this year as has “A Fantastic Woman.” Personally, I’d rather see “On Body And Soul” get nominated over “A Fantastic Woman” or “Foxtrot,” but that may not be in the cards.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
- “Darkest Hour”
- “Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2”
- “I, Tonya”
Alternates:
- “Wonder”
The first “Guardians of the Galaxy” pulled off a Best Makeup and Hairstyling nomination in its year, so I could see “Vol. 2” following suit, more so just because I would rather not watch the young adult film “Wonder,” which has actually been getting nominated all over the place. “Darkest Hour” is probably the strongest contender to win, seeing as Gary Oldman transforms into Winston Churchill and disappears.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- “Blade Runner 2049” – Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer
- “Dunkirk” – Hans Zimmer
- “Phantom Thread” – Jonny Greenwood
- “The Post” – John Williams
- “The Shape of Water” – Alexandre Desplat
Alternates:
- “Darkest Hour” – Dario Marianelli
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – Carter Burwell
Alexandre Desplat won the Golden Globes as well as many national critics’ awards, while Jonny Greenwood was collecting all the rest of the critics’ awards. Hans Zimmer could be facing off against himself, unless “Blade Runner 2049″ isn’t going to get as much love as I think it will. That would leave either “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which is a strong Best Picture nominee, or “Darkest Hour,” which may or may not get much Academy love as it has not gotten much love across the board, save for Oldman’s performance.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Evermore” from “Beauty and the Beast” – (performed by Josh Groban)
- “Mighty River” from “Mudbound” – (performed by Mary J. Blige)
- “Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name” – (performed by Sufjan Stevens)
- “Remember Me” from “Coco” – (performed by Miguel featuring Natalia Lafourcade)
- “This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman” – (performed by Keala Settle)
These are mainly the only songs being talked about, minus the few that were also nominated at the Golden Globes, coming from “The Star” and “Ferdinand.” The Original Song category can be tricky because most years some unheard of films sneak into this category. But to me, the strongest contenders are “Coco” and “The Greatest Showman.” The rest are give or take and probably interchangeable with any of the other films still under consideration.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- “Beauty and the Beast”
- “Blade Runner 2049”
- “Darkest Hour”
- “Dunkirk”
- “The Shape Of Water”
Alternates:
- “The Post”
- “Wonder Woman”
“Blade Runner 2049” and “The Shape Of Water” will likely be hashing this one out.
BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY)
- “Heaven Is A Traffic Jam on the 405”
- “Heroin(e)”
- “Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets”
- “116 Cameras”
- “Traffic Stop”
Alternates:
- “Ten Meter Tower”
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
- “DeKalb Elementary”
- “Lost Face”
- “My Nephew Emmett”
- “Rise Of A Star”
- “The Silent Child”
Alternates:
- “Watu Wote”
BEST SOUND EDITING
- “Baby Driver”
- “Blade Runner 2049”
- “Dunkirk”
- “The Shape Of Water”
- “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Alternates:
- “Wonder Woman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
- “Baby Driver”
- “Blade Runner 2049”
- “Dunkirk”
- “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
- “Wonder Woman”
Alternates:
- “The Shape Of Water”
- “War For The Planet Of The Apes”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- “Blade Runner 2049”
- “Dunkirk”
- “Kong: Skull Island”
- “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
- “War For The Planet Of The Apes”
Alternates:
- “The Shape Of Water”
BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
- “Call Me by Your Name” – James Ivory
- “The Disaster Artist” – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
- “Logan” – Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
- “Molly’s Game” – Aaron Sorkin
- “Mudbound” – Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
There’s not much else to consider in the Adapted category and I would absolutely love to see “Logan” nominated. Unless something gets nominated out of left field, say something like “Films Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool,” this particular category is pretty slim pickings.
BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
- “Get Out” – Jordan Peele
- “I, Tonya” – Steven Rogers
- “Lady Bird” – Greta Gerwig
- “The Shape of Water” – Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – Martin McDonagh
Alternates:
- “The Big Sick” – Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
- “Phantom Thread” – Paul Thomas Anderson
Original Screenplay on the other hand is chalk full and its tough to only pick five. Usually you go with what you believe to be strong Best Picture contenders because they normally coincide. Jordan Peele’s “Get Out” is the favorite in this category, just by the sheer amount that it’s won thus far, so I definitely see that getting nominated. Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird” should also be a shoe-in for this category, probably the biggest competition for “Get Out.” If “Three Billboards” and “The Shape Of Water” are going to be big contenders as well, they will likely need to end up here. Many believe “The Big Sick” will land that last spot, but to me, “I, Tonya” will be the bigger contender this year and will be more likely to grab that nomination. I wouldn’t mind either of those films grabbing the nomination. I also included Paul Thomas Anderson on the alternates, because you can never count out the Academy’s love for him.
