The most extended Oscars award season culminates tomorrow with the 93rd Academy Awards. 2020 was a year that tested us as a people, and it’s not over yet. But it’s essential to take a step back and hopefully be able to breathe a slight sense of normalcy, if only in experiencing the yearly tradition of Hollywood awarding itself.
Thanks to the quarantine, I was able to see many of these films throughout the year. I was also able to rewatch all of them as part of my annual Oscars Challenge. Forty-one features and fifteen short films. Now, all that’s left is the dirty business of predicting what will be bringing home the gold statues. I base many of my picks on consensus, what has won until this point, and what has the groundswell. I try to include my personal preference, but let’s be honest, it’s more about picking the winners.
BEST motion PICTURE of the year
“Nomadland”
Produced by Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao
Searchlight Pictures
Months ago, I would have told you that “The Trial of the Chicago 7” was the only feature that could win Best Picture. Based on the stats, that could still happen. But, “Nomadland” has the momentum. Chloé Zhao is locked as the Best Directing winner, giving the film an upper hand. However, if it’s a split year, it’s going to “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN”
NOMINEES
“The Father”
Sony Pictures Classics
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
Warner Bros. Pictures
“Mank”
Netflix
“Minari”
A24
“Promising Young Woman”
Focus Features
“Sound Of Metal”
Amazon Studios
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Netflix
best PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Chadwick Boseman
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Netflix
Chadwick Boseman has been posthumously steamrolling the awards up to this point. I find it hard to imagine the Academy not honoring the man. His wife, Taylor Simone Ledward, has done an inspiring job of keeping his memory alive whenever she accepts his awards, and it should make for a very touching moment at the Oscars.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
RIZ AHMED
“SOUND OF METAL”
NOMINEES
Riz Ahmed
“Sound Of Metal”
Anthony Hopkins
“The Father”
Gary Oldman
“Mank”
Steven Yeun
“Minari”
best PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Carey Mulligan
“Promising Young Woman”
Focus Features
Actress in a Leading Role is a toss-up. Pundits place Viola Davis in the lead while Carey Mulligan has been garnering some decent groundswell throughout the awards season. She also checks the box of being “due,” although I never like to lean on that factor. I wouldn’t even count out Andra Day, who won the Golden Globe for her performance. Or Frances McDormand, whose film “Nomadland” will likely be winning Best Picture. I went with Mulligan because she’d be my pick, and I hope I can will this one into existence.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
CAREY MULLIGAN
“PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN”
NOMINEES
Viola Davis
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day
“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby
“Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand
“Nomadland”
best PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Daniel Kaluuya
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
Warner Bros. Pictures
We were all somewhat baffled by Daniel Kaluuya being considered a “supporting actor” in “Judas and the Black Messiah.” We were confused even more so when announced alongside him was Lakeith Stanfield. Yet, here we are, with Kaluuya about to win the Oscar. He’s swept this awards season, and there’s likely no one who can beat him.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
DANIEL KALUUYA
“JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH”
NOMINEES
Sacha Baron Cohen
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Leslie Odom Jr.
“One Night In Miami”
Paul Raci
“Sound Of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
best PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Youn Yuh-Jung
“Minari”
A24
We’re going to find out something very early during the Oscars. We’re going to find out how much love “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” has behind it. Having surprised a few times this awards season, suddenly all eyes are on it to see if it can pull off some more. As far as a safe bet, however, Youn Yuh-Jung has been winning consistently and had the more robust performance of the year.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
YOUN YUH-JUNG
“MINARI”
NOMINEES
Maria Bakalova
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close
“Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman
“The Father”
Amanda Seyfried
“Mank”
best ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Soul”
Produced by Pete Docter and Dana Murray
Walt Disney Pictures + Pixar Animation
“Soul” is winning Best Animated Feature Film. Yes, “Wolfwalkers” put up a good fight. Yes, I’d personally choose the other Pixar film, “Onward.” But “Soul” is the hands-down juggernaut in the category.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“ONWARD”
NOMINEES
“Onward
Pixar Animation
“Over The Moon”
Netflix
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
StudioCanal UK
“Wolfwalkers”
GKIDS
best achievement in CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Nomadland”
Cinematography by Joshua James Richards
Searchlight Pictures
Give Joshua James Richards his gold statue because the man will win the Oscar for Best Achievement in Cinematography. Apart from “Nomandland” being the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture, the imagery speaks for itself. Richards’ photography of the vast landscapes is the highlight of the entire film.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“NOMADLAND”
JOSHUA JAMES RICHARDS
NOMINEES
“Judas And The Black Messiah”
Sean Bobbitt
“Mank”
Erik Messerschmidt
“News of the World”
Dariusz Wolski
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Phedon Papamichael
best achievement in COSTUME DESIGN
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Written by Ann Roth
Netflix
Best Achievement in Costume Design might be the make-or-break category in your office’s Oscar pool. The pundits are calling for Ann Roth and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” to win. She won a few awards here and there throughout the season, so any buzz belongs to her. However, my gut tells me this category is more of a toss-up. Don’t be surprised to see “Mank” pull off a win here because it’s the most nominated film of the year and, as of right now, I only have it winning a single award.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“MANK”
TRISH SUMMERVILLE
NOMINEES
“Emma.”
Alexandra Byrne
“Mank”
Trish Summerville
“Mulan”
Bina Daigeler
“Pinocchio”
Massimo Cantini Parrini
best achievement in DIRECTING
Chloé Zhao
“Nomadland”
Searchlight Pictures
Chloé Zhao has had to have made history this year. She has brought a new definition to steamrolling the awards season. No matter the people, location, or affiliation, they all picked Chloé Zhao as the chosen one. She’s. Won. Everything. And there’s no way it’s going to stop now. Get ready for that Marvel’s “Eternals” trailer, which will name drop “Academy Award-winning director. Chloé Zhao.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
EMERALD FENNELL
“PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN”
NOMINEES
Lee Isaac Chung
“Minari”
Emerald Fennell
“Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher
“Mank”
Thomas Vinterberg
“Another Round”
best DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“My Octopus Teacher”
Produced by Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
Netflix
If we’re honest with each other, “Collective” was the better documentary last year. It was a real-life “Spotlight,” where journalists put their reputations and lives on the line to get out the truth about corruption in Bucharest hospitals and government. However, “My Octopus Teacher” was the more accessible watch. It’s shot beautifully and depicts a man communing with nature. No stress, no mess.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“COLLECTIVE”
NOMINEES
“Collective”
Magnolia Pictures
“Crip Camp”
Netflix
“The Mole Agent”
Dogwoof
“Time”
Amazon Studios
best DOCUMENTARY SHORT subject
“A Love Song for Latasha”
Produced by Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
Netflix
The predictions for Best Documentary Short Subject are all over the place. Many believe “A Concerto Is a Conversation” and its spotlight on a black musician and his grandpa will be the Academy’s choice. I found “Colette” more touching as an elderly woman revisits the concentration camp in which her older brother had died. All that said, my pick here is going with my gut. There’s something about the ode to young Latasha in “A Love Song for Latasha” that leads me to believe the Academy will vote with their hearts. “Hunger Ward” and “Do Not Split” were also influential, so the entire category is a toss-up.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“COLETTE”
NOMINEES
“Colette”
“A Concerto Is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
best achievement in FILM EDITING
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Edited by Alan Baumgarten
Netflix
Another category that could win or lose your office’s Oscar pool, Best Achievement in Film Editing, is a tight race. Trying to get inside the minds of the Academy voters, here’s what I deduced. “The Father” may rely heavily on the erratic editing that puts you in the sense of a man dealing with dementia, but it’s just that; erratic. You could argue that with “Nomadland” likely winning Best Picture, Best Directing, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Cinematography, that it wouldn’t be a stretch for Chloé Zhao to be honored here as well. She’s won plenty of editing awards before this. However, the editing of “The Trial of the Chicago 7” spoke to me. For what boils down to a courtroom drama, the film’s editing sets it apart in the exciting way they could tell stories with it. Let’s not forget that “The Trial of the Chicago 7” could still upset both Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7”
ALAN BAUMGARTEN
NOMINEES
“The Father”
Yorgos Lamprinos
“Nomadland”
Chloé Zhao
“Promising Young Woman”
Frédéric Thoraval
“Sound Of Metal”
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
best INTERNATIONAL feature FILM
“Another Round”
Denmark
Zentropa
“Another Round” dominated the awards season. The Best Achievement in Directing nomination for Thomas Vinterberg also shows the Academy’s hand regarding their love for the film. Unless we predict a massive upset on the horizon, Denmark’s winning this one.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“ANOTHER ROUND”
DENMARK
NOMINEES
“Better Days”
Hong Kong
“Collective”
Romania
“The Man Who Sold His Skin”
Tunisia
“Quo Vadis, Aida?”
Bosnia and Herzegovina
best achievement in MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Makeup and Hair by Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
Netflix
We’ve got another category to add to the list of setting you apart in your office Oscar pools. Explain to me why “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” is the front-runner in this category compared to the rest. There was sure a lot of makeup slathered on Viola Davis’ face. Meanwhile, “Hillbilly Elegy” transformed Glenn Close into another person. There will be no surprise upon my face if the winner for Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling ends up going to them.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“HILLBILLY ELEGY”
NOMINEES
“Emma”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures
(Original Score)
“Soul”
Composed by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, & Jon Batiste
Walt Disney Pictures + Pixar Animation
Just as “Soul” is the locked-in winner for Best Animated Feature Film, it also is in the Best Original Score category. The score is the heart of the film. Without it, you’d have a completely different movie.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“SOUL”
TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS, & JON BATISTE
NOMINEES
“Da 5 Bloods”
Terence Blanchard
“Mank”
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“Minari”
Emile Mosseri
“News Of The World”
James Newton Howard
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures
(Original SONG)
“Speak Now” from “One Night In Miami”
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Performed by Leslie Odom Jr.
Amazon Studios
All there is to go on in the Best Original Song category is which song won throughout the awards season. That honor goes to “Speak Now” from “One Night In Miami.” I think it helps that Leslie Odom Jr. sings the song himself. It’s also a song that has enormous significance to the story in the film. It holds weight regarding race, and for that, I think the Academy will appreciate that. That said, I will be pulling for “Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga,” which was my favorite song in any feature last year.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
NOMINEES
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
Music and Lyrics by Savan Kotecha, Rickard Goransson & Fat Max Gsus
Performed by Molly Sandén and Will Ferrell
“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Written by H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas
Performed by H.E.R.
“Io Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead”
Written by Diane Warren
Performed by Laura Pausini
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Music by Daniel Pemberton
Lyrics by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
Performed by Celeste
best achievement in PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Mank”
Production Design by Donald Graham Burt
Set Decoration by Jan Pascale
Netflix
Donald Graham Burt was the name thrown around all awards season when it came to Production Design. I don’t see that changing. “Mank” has ten Oscars nominations, so we know the Academy enjoyed the film. The odds are it has to win somewhere, and one of those will likely be here.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“TENET”
NOMINEES
“The Father”
Peter Francis
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Mark Ricker
“News Of The World”
David Crank
“Tenet”
Nathan Crowley
best animated short film
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
Produced by Will McCormack and Michael Govier
Netflix
“If Anything Happens I Love You” is too heartfelt not to win Best Animated Short. Delving into loss after a school shooting, you’d have to be heartless to see it and not vote for it. However, “Opera” is one of my favorite things to come out of 2020. I would be ecstatic to see it win.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“OPERA”
NOMINEES
“Burrow”
Pixar Animation
“Genius Loci”
Kazak Productions
“Opera”
Beasts and Natives Alike
“Yes-People”
MagnetFilm
best live action short film
“Two Distant Strangers”
Produced by Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
The subject matter of “Two Distant Strangers” is too timely not to win—a black man facing a racist police officer in a time loop. The moment the black man is choked and says he “can’t breath” was when I knew it would be the odds-on favorite. Don’t count out “The Letter Room,” which stars Oscar Isaac and Alia Shawkat. The star power and strong storytelling keep its chances very much alive.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“THE LETTER ROOM”
NOMINEES
“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“White Eye”
best SOUND
“Sound Of Metal”
Sound by Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Amazon Studios
Picking “Sound of Metal” as the winner of Best Sound seems like a no-brainer. Sound’s in the title, guys. Joke aside, the sound design in the film is impeccable. It immerses the audience in the ears of the lead character, who is losing his hearing. You get to experience his fear, frustration, disappointment, and uncertainty throughout the entire journey. There’s an argument to make that “Soul” could pull off a win here, but I’ll keep my money on the film with “sound” in the title.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“SOUND OF METAL”
NOMINEES
“Greyhound”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
best achievement in VISUAL EFFECTS
“Tenet”
Visual Effects by Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher
Warner Bros. Pictures
Perhaps it’s because I loved “Tenet” so much, but I see it winning Best Achievement in Visual Effects. The thought put into every frame of the film is awe-inspiring. That said, there’s a possibility the Academy did not feel the same about the film. If anything is going to upset, it will likely be “The Midnight Sky,” directed by George Clooney, which uses visual effects effectively to tell its story.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“TENET”
NOMINEES
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“The One and Only Ivan”
best ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Nomadland”
Written by Chloé Zhao
Searchlight Pictures
There’s a world that exists where “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” wins this category. It won at the Writers Guild Awards, so believe me when I say it is not outside the realm of possibilities. There’s also a world in which “The Father” could win. Florian Zeller’s film has the Best Picture nomination to back it up. But, my bet is on a movie that wasn’t eligible for the Writers Guild and is the Best Picture front-runner in “Nomadland.” Not that the writing is the most vital point of the film, some well-written, heartfelt moments make the movie overall worthwhile.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“THE WHITE TIGER”
RAMIN BAHRANI
NOMINEES
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern
“The Father”
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
“One Night In Miami”
Kemp Powers
“The White Tiger”
Ramin Bahrani
best ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Promising Young Woman”
Written by Emerald Fennell
Focus Features
The Academy better be awarding Emerald Fennell and “Promising Young Woman” the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. It’s so original; it knocked the wind out of me upon my first viewing. Fennell’s DNA is all over the film, and it deserves the award. It also has previous wins backing it up, having won the Writers Guild award. If anything’s going to beat it, it’s that pesky Aaron Sorkin with “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” We know the Academy loves Sorkin’s work, as they’ve nominated him three times, with one win. Also, let me reiterate, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” still has a chance to win Best Picture. So, winning Best Original Screenplay is still on the table. Will I be upset beyond belief if it succeeds? One hundred percent yes.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE PICK
“PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN”
EMERALD FENNELL
NOMINEES
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
Will Berson & Shaka King
“Minari”
Lee Isaac Chung
“Sound Of Metal”
Darius and Alexander Marder
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Aaron Sorkin
