“The Power of the Dog” has 12 nominations at this year’s Academy Awards, and somehow most pundits, myself included, only have it winning 1 or 2 Oscars. That doesn’t feel quite right, but here we are. There’s a chance it only wins Best Directing for Jane Campion. But I believe it will win the night’s top prize over “CODA.” And I’m happy to be wrong if that is not the case.
There are a few categories that feel locked. Troy Kotsur for Best Supporting Actor and “Dune” for Visual Effects are a few. Speaking of “Dune,” I have it winning 5 of its ten nominations. There will always be some surprises, likely in the Screenplay categories and the Best Leading Actress category.
With disappointment about the Academy’s decision not to present the eight categories during the telecast, we head into a night that feels like it becomes more irrelevant year after passing year.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
“The Power of the Dog”
Produced by Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
Netflix
There’s a big “CODA” contingent on the rise after winning the Screen Actors Guild Ensemble Award and the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture. Honestly, those are pretty strong precursors. “CODA” winning won’t bother me, as it was a fantastic film and deserves all the attention it gets. That said, “CODA” has also been called an after-school-special type of movie, and I wonder if that will put voters off of this movie altogether.
“The Power of the Dog” was the critical darling this year, winning most of the Best Picture awards across the country. The film received 12 nominations, and it seems a bit wild not to predict this one to win more than Best Directing. Jane Campion also started rubbing people the wrong way, but I don’t think that affects her winning Directing or hurts the chances for the film itself. In picking Best Picture for myself, I always ask myself which movie I’ll remember more in 10 years, and the truthful answer is likely “The Power of the Dog.”
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“THE POWER OF THE DOG”
Best Achievement in Directing
Jane Campion
“The Power of the Dog”
Produced by Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
Netflix
She’s been the front-runner for a while now. She might have rubbed people the wrong way at the Critics Choice awards, but I don’t think that destroys her chances of winning. If anything, we can look forward to her apology at the Oscars. The only other director I would consider winning over Campion would be Kenneth Branagh, but I don’t see the Academy going that route.
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JANE CAMPION
“THE POWER OF THE DOG”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Will Smith
“King Richard”
Directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green
Warner Bros. Pictures
As I look over the other actors in the Leading Role category, none even compare to the enormity of Will Smith’s performance in “King Richard,” and the man deserves to win his first Oscar. Benedict Cumberbatch would be my second choice, but it’s not even close.
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WILL SMITH
“KING RICHARD”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Directed by Michael Showalter
Searchlight Pictures
This year’s Best Actress in a Leading Role category has to be the most up-in-the-air category. Jessica Chastain is the favorite because she won the Screen Actors Guild award for her performance in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” Nicole Kidman won at the Golden Globes. And Penélope Cruz’s name showed up a lot on the individual ballots revealed after the voting was over. Not to mention, Kristen Stewart was the critical darling almost shut out. If it were up to me, I’d pick Stewart. People may not have liked “Spencer,” but she disappeared into the role. I’m going with Chastain because I know the Academy loves her and the SAG win is fresh in everyone’s minds.
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KRISTEN STEWART
“SPENCER”
Best Performance by an actor in a Supporting Role
Troy Kotsur
“CODA”
Directed by Siân Heder
Apple TV+
Give Troy Kotsur the Oscar already. The man was amazing in “CODA” and has been steamrolling the awards this season.
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TROY KOTSUR
“CODA”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Ariana DeBose
“West Side Story”
Directed by Steven Spielberg
20th Century Studios
Speaking of steamrolling the awards season this year, Ariana DeBose is another name that has been winning everywhere she’s nominated. She won at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Screen Actors Guild. There’s no reason she shouldn’t win the Oscar.
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ARIANA DEBOSE
“WEST SIDE STORY”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Encanto”
Directed by Jared Bush and Byron Howard
Produced by Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Walt Disney Pictures
“Encanto” seems too big to fail in the Best Animated Feature category. For one, kids and critics loved it alike. Lin-Manuel Miranda is attached to it, so the Academy will likely gravitate toward that. And I haven’t even mentioned that it is Walt Disney Pictures, a juggernaut in this category. My personal choice would be “The Mitchells vs. the Machines,” and I’m hoping that they might end up going for that one, but my gut tells me we’ll be talking about Bruno.
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“THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES”
Best Achievement in Cinematography
“Dune”
Cinematography by Greig Fraser
Warner Bros. Pictures
The epic science fiction film is likely to win the gold for Best Cinematography. Technical awards will be the bread and butter for “Dune,” including this category. The sweeping desert shots, the massive set pieces combine to give “Dune” the edge. There’s an argument that Ari Wenger could get some support. “The Power of the Dog” received 12 nominations, and there’s no reason not to believe it could land a few that no one else is predicting. A female has never won this award, and the Academy might want to make history.
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“DUNE”
GREIG FRASER
Best Achievement in Costume Design
“Cruella”
Costume Design by Jenny Beavan
Walt Disney Pictures
“Cruella” is entirely based around fashion and innovative fashion at that. It would be a shame if Jenny Beavan missed after what she did with the costumes in that film. The response toward the movie was somewhere closer to being loved than hated, but everyone can agree that the costumes in the film are far and above anything else put out last year. If any movie is going to steal the win from “Cruella,” it will likely either be “Dune,” on its clean-up tour of the technical awards, or even “West Side Story,” which did have some brilliant, memorable costumes. Since the film came out back in May, my money’s still on “Cruella.”
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“CRUELLA”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
Directed by Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson
Produced by Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
Searchlight Pictures
“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” presents footage locked away since 1969. It was a concert series just as significant as Woodstock, yet no one has ever heard of it. The fact that people who attended the concert questioned whether it existed is proof enough of how important this film is. Any other year, I think “Flee” might have won. But “Summer of Soul” is winning.
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“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
Best Documentary Short Subject
“The Queen of Basketball”
Directed by Ben Proudfoot
The New York Times
“The Queen of Basketball” has the consensus behind it. It also has Shaquille O’Neal as an executive producer. And the woman at the center of the documentary is not only dynamic and lovable, but she’s also a significant figure in basketball history. How are we only just hearing about her? I went back and forth whether to predict with the consensus or with my heart. “Audible” feels like a much more likable film, following a football team of deaf athletes, playing in honor of a friend that committed suicide. That feels more powerful to me. “Lead Me Home” also felt more prominent. Shining a light on the homeless epidemic on the West coast, this felt like it needed to be a feature.
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“AUDIBLE”
Best Achievement in Film Editing
“King Richard”
Edited by Pamela Martin
Warner Bros. Pictures
The Best Film Editing category is a toss-up. On the one hand, “The Power of the Dog” has 12 nominations and could easily land some wins where we’re not expecting them. On the other hand, “Dune” is an almost three-hour film that feels breezy. Ultimately, I went with my heart and picked “King Richard.” In particular, the dynamic editing of the tennis matches keeps you engaged with a sport that might be hard to encapsulate in film. Let’s not leave out “Don’t Look Up” either, whose editing takes on a life of its own. It just depends where the Academy voters decide to give their love.
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“KING RICHARD”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“Drive My Car”
(Japan)
Directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Janus Films
A part of me is hoping for an upset in the International Feature category. I was in the small camp of people that didn’t enjoy “Drive My Car.” However, the film is nominated in the Best Picture and Directing categories, which means the film had tremendous support. It is also loved by most, so it seems like the one to win. My pick, “The Worst Person in the World,” likely has zero chances of winning. If anything is going to upset, it would be “Flee,” but I don’t see that happening.
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“THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD”
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Makeup and Hairstyling by Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
Searchlight Pictures
How much love will there be for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” especially regarding Best Makeup and Hairstyling? The pundits are leaning on it to win. But where were all these supporters of “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” before the Oscars? I want to pick “Dune” to win this category, but my gut tells me the Academy voters will go with this one. I also wouldn’t be mad if “Coming 2 America” won. I do not see them awarding that film. However, the prosthetic work in that film was awe-inspiring. The old man character played by Eddie Murphy was almost indistinguishable.
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“DUNE”
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures
(Original Score)
“Dune”
Composed by Hans Zimmer
Warner Bros. Pictures
The Best Original Score category feels like a trap. “Dune” and Hans Zimmer feel like the easy pick. But deep down, this one feels like a category that could get stolen. And either “The Power of the Dog” and Jonny Greenwood or “Encanto” and Germaine Franco could be the ones stealing it. However, it feels foolish to pick anything other than “Dune” at this point, which would give Zimmer his second Academy Award.
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“DUNE”
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures
(Original SONG)
“No Time To Die”
from “No Time To Die”
Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
Billie Eilish singing “No Time to Die” feels like the easy pick for Best Original Song. The song is standalone, the best of the bunch. But if we’re arguing what could disrupt this perfect win, it’s whether or not the Academy will go for Billie Eilish. It’d be foolish to count out “Encanto” because the film has a lot of support. Diane Warren is also looking to grab her first win after 13 nominations, and I saw a few voters posting their ballots with that reason solely attached to their pick. Even Beyonce’s song from “King Richard” was on a few.
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“NO TIME TO DIE”
Best Achievement in Production Design
“Dune”
Production Design by Patrice Vermette
Set Decoration by Zsuzsanna Sipos
Warner Bros. Pictures
The sets of “Dune” are imaginative, complex, and enormous. Why wouldn’t you give the Oscar to this film? The art direction and production design make this film the epic science fiction film that it is. There is likely love for the other nominees as well. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” is set apart by its design, while “West Side Story” goes leaps and bounds above its predecessor. Even the Guillermo del Toro effect on the “Nightmare Alley” design is nothing to shy away from either. However, I’m sticking with “Dune,” and I’m choosing to believe the Academy will go all-in on this movie in the technical awards.
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“DUNE”
Best Animated Short Film
“Robin Robin”
Directed by Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
Netflix
This year, the Academy went full adult content in the Best Animated Feature Film category, with four of the five nominees containing nudity and violence. “Robin Robin,” the only child-friendly film of the bunch, will likely be the winner. The reason is that the Academy has a history of love for Aardman Animations (Wallace and Gromit and Shaun the Sheep). My pick would be “The Windshield Wiper” because of its unique animation style and its subject of love.
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“THE WINDSHIELD WIPER”
Best Live Action Short Film
“The Long Goodbye”
Directed by Aneil Karia
Written by Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
WePresent
Riz Ahmed is hard not to love. “The Long Goodbye” feels like his passion project, and that will be what gets supporters behind it. It’s short, sweet, and poignant. “Please Hold” grabbed my attention a bit more, however. With its take on racism and incarceration but in a future ruled by robots, it felt like a big-budget affair for being a short film. Not to mention, I want to see a feature around this idea as well. However, I’m not going to bet against Riz Ahmed and the consensus around “The Long Goodbye.”
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“PLEASE HOLD”
Best Sound
“Dune”
Sound Design by Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
Warner Bros. Pictures
For Best Sound, I suppose I’m going with the big and loud “Dune.” I’m not stating that in a derogatory way, but the film to win Best Sound is usually in that category. A few Oscar voters made their votes known that they were going with “West Side Story” because of how hard musicals can be in the Sound department, so I would not be surprised to see that pop up here. But once again, “Dune” is looking to sweep some tech awards.
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“DUNE”
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
“Dune”
Visual Effects by Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Warner Bros. Pictures
Visual effects are so impressive that I feel we take them for granted. While picking “Dune” in this category seems easy, all the films have their merits. “Dune” goes above and beyond in all areas of visual effects. The film would not be an epic without the massive help from its visual effects team. “Dune” has enough support to take some of these technical awards, and Best Visual Effects is at the top of that list.
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“DUNE”
Best Achievement in WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
“CODA”
Screenplay by Siân Heder
Based on “La Famille Bélier” by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg, and Éric Lartigau
AppleTV+
Both writing categories feel up in the air this year. In Adapted Screenplay, you’ve got some strong contenders. “The Power of the Dog” has strong Best Picture and Directing win possibilities, so a win here would not be unfathomable. “The Lost Daughter” has seen support for Maggie Gyllenhaal all awards season. And “CODA,” which won the Writers Guild award and has seen its Best Picture chances growing by the day since winning the Screen Actors Guild Ensemble and Producers Guild Award. Even though I’m picking “The Power of the Dog” to win Best Picture, there’s still a world where “CODA” wins here, not Best Picture. A win here will help predict whether the Best Picture win is in its future.
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“THE POWER OF THE DOG”
Best Achievement in WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
“Belfast”
Written by Kenneth Branagh
Focus Features
Ever since the tide turned on Paul Thomas Anderson and his screenplay for “Licorice Pizza,” the Best Original Screenplay became harder to predict. “King Richard” has some strong supporters, “Don’t Look Up” won the Writers Guild Award, and my pick, “Belfast,” has the most substantial Best Picture ties. Pundits predict it being the third most likely to win the Best Picture award. Ultimately, I went with my heart. “Belfast” had the most feel-good story to it. It was profoundly personal and yet entirely relatable. However, don’t be surprised if we’ve overemphasized Anderson’s fall-out, and he still wins.
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“BELFAST”
