Oscars Watch: 95th Academy Awards Predictions

Best Motion Picture of the Year

“Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)

Produced by Daniel Kwan, Mike Larocca, Anthony Russo, Joe Russo, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
“TÁR” (Focus Features)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

The Daniels and their creation, “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” have been making waves all awards season. The film won more Screen Actors Guild awards in that organization’s history, Best Picture from the Critics Choice and Gotham Awards, and seven awards, including Best Feature from the Film Independent Spirit Awards and the Producers Guild of America Award for Outstanding Producer. The film is on fire, which is great for diversity, inclusivity, and, generally, thinkers outside the box. It was a film loved by critics and casual viewers alike. There’s no reason this film shouldn’t win Best Picture.

If we’re looking for any upset, which doesn’t seem likely, “The Banshees of Inisherin” would probably be the one. But as of right now, “Banshees” is not projected to win very much, if anything at all. “TÁR” and “Women Talking” would probably be the next in line, with projections for them to win a few awards, likely Best Leading Actress for “TÁR” and Best Adapted Screenplay for “Women Talking.” However, those have to be huge long shots. Maybe it’s less fun with no surprise coming at the show’s end, but everyone is ready to celebrate the culmination of “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and its run this past year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler
“Elvis” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

—
Colin Farrell – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Brendan Fraser – “The Whale” (A24)
Paul Mescal – “Aftersun” (A24)
Bill Nighy – “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Many would probably say I have these picks turned around, and Austin Butler (“Elvis”) is the “Potential Upset,” while Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) is the odds-on favorite. And I would tell you there are two ways you can make your picks in most categories. You can go with the consensus (which also says Butler, mind you), or you can go with your gut and your preference, which is the decision I teeter between when making my picks. In this case, I lean toward Butler. He embodies the role of Elvis Presley almost better than the icon himself. Much like Rami Malek’s win for becoming Freddie Mercury in “Bohemian Rhapsody,” I think Butler will end up with the Oscar. Plus, he won at the BAFTAS and the Golden Globes.

On the other hand, Brendan Fraser won the Critics Choice and the Screen Actors Guild awards, which can also be a prominent precursor when predicting the winner of the Oscars. I justify an Oscar for Butler against those Fraser wins because “The Whale” was a critical darling. They ate it up (no pun intended). And at SAG, it felt like the room was honoring legacies all night, and his legacy was one of them. A room full of actors was commemorating a fellow actor who has weathered dry spells in his career and came back with a powerhouse of performance, while Butler seems new and not yet seasoned. However, look at all the love the Academy gave to “Elvis,” which is eight nominations, including one for Best Picture. “The Whale” has only three, with many people surprised when it didn’t pull off the Best Picture nomination. That could indicate where they may lean for the win in this category. Will they honor Fraser’s legacy? Or will they give it to arguably the more high-profile performance?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Michelle Yeoh
“Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)

—
Cate Blanchett – “TÁR” (Focus Features)
Ana de Armas – “Blonde” (Netflix)
Andrea Riseborough – “To Leslie” (Momentum Pictures)
Michelle Williams – “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

The winner of Best Actress in a Leading Role will either be Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”) or Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”). Ana de Armas, Andrea Riseborough, and Michelle Williams, thanks for playing. The question is, where will the Academy land? With the overall love for “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” everyone has to think it will be Yeoh. Her acceptance speeches at the Film Independent Spirit Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards were well publicized, and it just feels like a legendary win.

Then you have Cate Blanchett, who won at the BAFTAs, the Critics Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes, where she appeared not even to care that she’d won. Could that have rubbed people the wrong way? Yeoh has been over the moon with wins. She’s also never been nominated for an Academy Award, while Blanchett has eight nominations and two wins. That shows their love for Blanchett, but they may also see it as Yeoh’s chance to shine finally. It’s a coin flip. I didn’t find the appeal in “TÁR,” so my pick of Yeoh is easy.

Best Performance by an actor in a Supporting Role

Ke Huy Quan
“Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)

—
Brendan Gleeson – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway” (A24 / Apple TV+)
Judd Hirsch – “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Barry Keoghan – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

If there’s one category at the Oscars this year that feels locked, it’s Best Actor in a Supporting Role. Ke Huy Quan has won almost every award for which he got nominated. He swept this awards season, which should cap off with an incredible Oscars win. The man accepts his triumphs with emotion and appreciation that is unmatched. You speak of legacies; Quan started in “The Temple of Doom” in 1984 and “The Goonies” in 1985. He’d go on to star in “Encino Man” in 1992 and then nothing of relevance until last year, thirty years later, with “Everything Everywhere All At Once.”

The character he plays in the film is the linchpin of the entire story. He’s the glue holding the family together, and just when he’s trying his hardest not to let go, the multiverse comes calling. He plays sweet and sincere in one universe, a soft-spoken, smoking, sophisticated man in another, and a James Bond action star in the Alpha-verse. He thought his career was over when there were no roles for him, and yet, he stuck with it and should now be getting an Oscar. If we date breathe the words “upset” in this category, Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) is the only option. But there might be a riot if he were to win over Quan.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
(Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios)

—
Hong Chau – “The Whale” (A24)
Kerry Condon – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

At some point, the tide started turning on Angela Bassett’s Oscar win for his performance in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” She won the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes, and we all celebrated, telling ourselves this was genuinely happening. But since then, she hasn’t won anything. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) would win the BAFTAs, and Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”) would win the Screen Actors Guild. Despite Bassett not being nominated, Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”) would win the Film Independent Spirit Award. All of a sudden, it was a three to four-headed race.

Working against Bassett is the continued disdain for superhero films. Despite their achievements, certain Hollywood groups still stick their noses up at them. Isolate Bassett’s performance in “Wakanda Forever” and remove it from the film; you’ve got one of the year’s strongest performances. She gives the role of Queen Ramonda her best. Not to leap too far, but honoring her performance in the franchise that Chadwick Boseman made famous would also be like honoring his legacy. If Curtis (or Hsu) pulled off a win here, I hope you placed your money on “Everything Everywhere All At Once” in most categories because it might spell a sweep.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)

Produced by Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley

—
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (Universal Pictures / DreamWorks)
“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)
“Turning Red” (Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation)

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” is a relatively easy pick to make for Best Animated Feature. The stop-animation film has gotten the most awards and the most press, and with del Toro at the helm, which the Academy adores, there’s no question it will likely end up with the Oscar. It swept Best Animated Feature at the Annie Awards, the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and the Producers Guild Awards. The only real competition it has would potentially be “Marcel the Shell with Shoes on,” and even though that was my favorite animated film of the bunch, I don’t see a world where it pulls off the upset.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

“Elvis” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Cinematography by Mandy Walker

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – James Friend (Netflix)
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” – Darius Khondji (Netflix)
“Empire of Light” – Roger Deakins (Searchlight Pictures)
“TÁR” – Florian Hoffmeister (Focus Features)

The Best Cinematography has me stumped. If we look at precursor wins, Florian Hoffmeister (“TÁR”) won the Film Independent Spirit Awards, Mandy Walker (“Elvis”) won the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, and James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) won the BAFTAs. All three of those films have Best Picture nominations to go along with them. Pundits lean toward “All Quiet on the Western Front,” with “Elvis” close behind. My gut is telling me “TÁR” for no more reason than it just feels like what the Academy would do. Ultimately, I’m picking “Elvis” because Mandy Walker would be the first female to win this award, which might be enough to sway voters.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
(Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios)

Costume Design by Ruth E. Carter

—
“Babylon” – Mary Zophres (Paramount Pictures)
“Elvis” – Catherine Martin (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Shirley Kurata (A24)
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” – Jenny Beavan (Focus Features)

I’ll take a flyer with Best Costume Design, as not many are picking “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” or Ruth E. Carter here. Catherine Martin is being hailed as the odds-on favorite, with previous Oscar wins for her collaboration with husband Baz Luhrmann (“The Great Gatsby” & “Moulin Rouge”). “Elvis” has the Best Picture nomination over “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” With rumblings that the Academy might not be as supportive of the Marvel film as we originally might have believed, it may be an ill-advised pick. However, I find the costumes more noteworthy in “Wakanda Forever,” and Carter won for her previous work on “Black Panther” in 2018. That could either help or hurt her chances of winning for her work on the sequel.

Best Achievement in Directing

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
“Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)

—
Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Todd Field – “TÁR” (Focus Features)
Ruben Östlund – “Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)

The night’s big winner should be “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” so it goes without saying that the directors, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, are in line as the most apparent picks in Best Directing. They’re also favorites in the Best Original Screenplay category, so the stars are aligning for this film to sweep the major awards. Since “The Banshees of Inisherin” is likely the biggest competition to “Everything Everywhere” in Best Picture, the director Martin McDonagh will be the upset pick in this category. Working against the Daniels is a need for more legacy. These guys haven’t been around that long. McDonagh is a tried-and-true Oscar regular who only won a Live Action Short Film back in 2004, while the Academy passed up his more well-known work (“In Bruges” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”). He could be the biggest beneficiary if the Academy wants to “spread the wealth” throughout the night. I should also add, NEVER count out Steven Spielberg.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Navalny” (Warner Bros. Pictures / CNN Films)

Produced by Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

—
“All That Breathes” (Sideshow / Submarine Deluxe)
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon)
“Fire of Love” (Neon / National Geographic Documentary Films)
“A House Made of Splinters” (Final Cut for Real)

Plain and simple, “Navalny” blew me away when I saw it during the 2022 Sundance Film Festival. Not only is it timely, with the Russian war on Ukraine, but the main character of the piece is still dealing with the repercussions of the events in the documentary to this day. “Navalny” is one of those documentaries Hollywood couldn’t have written any better. It’s eye-opening, dread-inducing, and one of the year’s best films, fiction or non-fiction.

That said, “Navalny” is in no way a lock to win. “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” has plenty of support. It just won Best Documentary at the Film Independent Spirit Awards, and although that’s not a known precursor to winning, it does show that it has a level of popularity. “All That Breathes” has raked in a ton of honors ranging from Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography in Documentary Film from the American Society of Cinematographers, the Cannes Film Festival’s Golden Eye Award, Cinema Eye’s top honors, and the Gotham Awards. Again, none of these indicate a higher potential for a win, but it’s worth noting. “Fire Of Love” may be the biggest competition with the Directors Guild and American Cinema Editors Awards. Working in favor of “Navalny” are the BAFTA and Producers Guild Award wins.

Best Documentary Short Subject

“The Elephant Whisperers” (Netflix)

Produced by Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga

—
“Haulout” (The New Yorker Documentary)
“How Do You Measure a Year?” (Jay Rosenblatt Films)
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”(Netflix)
“Stranger at the Gate” (Smartypants Pictures)

Everyone seems to be going with “Stranger at the Gate,” because Malala Yousafzai is attached to it. The subject matter also deals with inclusivity and race relations, so it’s not without its merits. I’m leaning on the widely available short “The Elephant Whisperers,” which Netflix released. Never underestimate the power of more people seeing something streaming on a service they own. This short documentary struck me with its stunning visuals and imagery of elephants living alongside humans and even kicking a soccer ball around like it’s playing. “Haulout” was another great film in the category and shouldn’t be counted out.

Best Achievement in Film Editing

“Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)

Edited by Paul Rogers

—
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen (Searchlight Pictures)
“Elvis” – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“TÁR” – Monika Willi (Focus Features)
“Top Gun: Maverick” – Eddie Hamilton (Paramount Pictures)

Watch “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and tell me it doesn’t deserve Best Film Editing. The sheer amount of work that went into putting that film together is commendable, and it should be honored. Paul Rogers has been racking up some wins, taking the Best Editing award at the BAFTAs, even though they didn’t celebrate the film in any other category. He also won the American Cinema Editors Award for Best Edited Comedy, the Critics Choice Award, the Film Independent Spirit Award, and the Satellite Award. Conversely, Eddie Hamilton (“Top Gun: Maverick”) won the American Cinema Editors Award for Best Edited Drama. But that’s really where the comparisons end.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
(Netflix)

—
“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina) (Amazon Studios)
“Close” (Belgium) (A24)
“EO” (Poland) (Janus Films)
“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland) (Super LTD)

Nothing could be more of a lock than “All Quiet on the Western Front” winning the Best International Feature Film category. Nominated for eight other Academy Awards, no international film nominated for Best Picture has ever lost the International award. The BAFTAs were also kind to the film, honoring it with seven awards. The biggest competition is likely “Argentina 1985,” as it won at the Golden Globes and the Satellite Awards, neither of which indicates the potential to win at the Oscars.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

“Elvis” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Makeup and Hairstyling by Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“The Batman” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios)
“The Whale” (A24)

The Best Makeup and Hairstyling category has me conflicted. On the one hand, “Elvis” won the Critics Choice, Hollywood Makeup Artist and Hair Stylist Guild, Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts, and the BAFTA Awards. On the other, look at the terrible prosthetic work they did on Tom Hanks’ character. It’s unforgivable, and something deep down tells me the Academy voters aren’t going to go for that.

“The Whale” is just as conflicting, however. The quality of the work is much better, but with the film missing out on the Best Picture nomination, you have to wonder if the film has any support. If Austin Butler wins Actor in a Leading Role, then “Elvis” will likely pull off the Makeup and Hairstyling win. And the same goes for “The Whale” if Brendan Fraser wins. Currently, I have zero wins for “The Whale,” which might upset some people.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SCORE)

“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)

Composed by Justin Hurwitz

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Volker Bertelmann (Netflix)
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Carter Burwell (Searchlight Pictures)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Son Lux (A24)
“The Fabelmans” – John Williams (Universal Pictures)

Justin Hurwitz’s original score for “Babylon” is one of the film’s highlights. Entire portions of the plot are written around the music played. Hurwitz won the Golden Globes and Satellite Awards for his score, plus he has two previous Oscar wins, showing that the Academy loves his work. So why does this category feel like it could go to a different score? For starters, “Babylon” is the only film in this category without a Best Picture nomination, meaning the Academy might not have as much love for it as other films.

“All Quiet on the Western Front” and Volker Bertelmann won the BAFTAs, but they were heavily in on the film, giving it more wins than another voting body. There’s also a stat about Best Pictures with Score and Song nominations never missing a win in the Original Score column. That puts “Everything Everywhere All At Once” on the statistical probability route. In the end, it feels like Hurwitz’s to lose.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SONG)

“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films)

Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose

—
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Pictures + Marvel Studios)
“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

For Best Original Song, I’m putting my personal taste aside and going with the consensus. Despite many people immensely enjoying it, I was not a huge fan of “RRR” and thus, the original song and the charm people are experiencing was lost on me. Many believed “RRR” should have gotten nominated in other categories, so if any Academy members are looking to show it love, this is the only place they can do it.

However, please ask yourself, why wasn’t “RRR” nominated in any other category? Is it possible that perhaps the Academy were more in my camp, not enjoying it as much as the vocal minority? If that’s the case, then it could open the door for something else to win. My allegiances fall in the “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” camp, because it’s such an emotional song and Rihanna is fresh off her Super Bowl performance and general popularity. It will piss off the “RRR” lovers, but upsets happen every year.

Best Achievement in Production Design

“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)

Production Design by Florencia Martin; Set Decoration by Anthony Carlino

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” – Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, and Vanessa Cole (20th Century Studios)
“Elvis” – Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, and Bev Dunn (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“The Fabelmans” – Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara (Universal Pictures)

If there’s one movie I’d be worried about getting support from the Academy, it is “Babylon.” It didn’t show up in the Best Picture category, and it simply hasn’t received the love you’d like to see from a movie you’re predicting to win an Oscar. However, the team behind the production design did win at the BAFTAS, which showed the same small amount of recognition for the film. It also won the Art Directors Guild for Best Period Film, the Critics Choice Award, and the Satellite Awards, so it’s not like a win here would be its only one.

The question is whether Catherine Martin and her work on “Elvis” will be honored here and in the Costume Design. At the BAFTAs, though “Babylon” won for Production Design, Martin won for “Costume Design.” The Academy might award her across the board, which they’ve done before. “Elvis” also has the Best Picture nomination to go with it, which might show the support the film has. Regardless, the wins “Babylon” has been racking up in this category during all awards season should be enough to give it the win.

Best Animated Short Film

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
(BBC / Apple TV+)

Produced by Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

—
“The Flying Sailor” (National Film Board of Canada)
“Ice Merchants” (Wild Stream)
“My Year of Dicks” (Cat’s Pajamas / Wonder Killer)
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” (Griffith Film School)

As with most years, the short categories are a coin toss. This year’s big fish is BBC and Apple TV’s “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” a sweet and saccharine tale of a boy learning valuable life lessons. There’s an impressive voice cast, including Idris Elba, Gabriel Byrne, and Tom Hollander, plus the animation style is gorgeous, which often makes up for any lack of a heartfelt story. Word on the street is that Apple did their due diligence in marketing this to voters, so it feels like the odds-on favorite.

However, if I were an Oscar voter, I would choose “Ice Merchants.” Though not as pristine as “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” the animation style is still thoughtful, with a more rough-around-the-edges look. The sentiment of “Ice Merchants” hit me harder, telling the story of loss in an eloquent parable. I would not count out “My Year of Dicks” either. With a title like that, chances are there was more attention on it than the others. It’s a female-forward tale of coming of age, and I’ve seen support for it. My bet will be on the odds, but there will be no surprises here, as far as I see it.

Best Live Action Short Film

“An Irish Goodbye”

Produced by Tom Berkeley and Ross White

—
“Ivalu”
“Le Pupille”
“Night Ride”
“The Red Suitcase”

Neither of the films that appear to be vying for the Best Live Action Short Film category, “An Irish Goodbye” and “Le Pupille,” would be my picks. Although nothing is wrong with them, I was moved more by “Ivalu” and “The Red Suitcase.” The biggest things going for “An Irish Goodbye” include a brilliant actor with Down Syndrome and a heartfelt story of losing a mother and wanting to reconnect with a brother. It is also the only English language short in this category, so never count out that bias.

“Le Pupille” is the heavy hitter, released by Disney+ and produced by Academy darling Alfonso Cuarón. Add a story of cute little orphan girls and humorous situations, which might be the recipe for an Oscar win. Or will the Academy voters feel as I do and vote for the pieces that moved them more? I don’t see a world where “Ivalu” wins because no one else is talking about it, but “The Red Suitcase” has its supporters, a film about a young Iranian girl frightened to leave an airport where a new life is waiting for her.

Best Sound

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

Sound Design by Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“The Batman” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

The only real reason I’m picking “Top Gun: Maverick” for Best Sound is that I don’t predict the film winning in any other category, and I cannot see it going home empty-handed. It wasn’t a stranger to wins this awards season, either. The team of editors and mixers won the Cinema Audio Society and Satellite Awards. The BAFTAs handed their win to “All Quiet on the Western Front,” as did the Association of Motion Picture Sound. War films are known for winning this category, but you could argue that “Top Gun: Maverick” is also a war film. No one’s mentioning it here, but “Elvis” has to be in the conversation, with a win from the Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts. Like my comparison between “Elvis” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” earlier, there’s a solid case that “Elvis” will win the Sound category just like “Bohemian” did.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)

Visual Effects by Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“The Batman” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Pictures / Marvel Studios)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

Nothing will beat “Avatar: The Way Of Water” in the Best Visual Effects category. Whether you love the film or hate it as I do, there’s no denying its visual feats. The only reason the film got nominated for Best Picture was because of its special effects merits. Both “Top Gun: Maverick” and “All Quiet On The Western Front” were balanced in other areas, like writing, to earn their Best Picture nominations. But since that’s what “Avatar 2” is here for, it better win.

Best Achievement in WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

“Women Talking” (MGM / United Artists Releasing)

Written by Sarah Polley; Based on the novel by Miriam Toews

—
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell (Netflix)
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” – Rian Johnson (Netflix)
“Living” – Kazuo Ishiguro (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Top Gun: Maverick” – Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks (Paramount Pictures)

Sarah Polley was once a favorite in the Best Directing category for “Women Talking.” Then, the nominations came out, and she was absent from the list. There’s a history of the Academy attempting to make good in certain situations like that, and that would put Polley in the “likely to win” category for Best Adapted Screenplay. In addition to that, “Women Talking” has been winning plenty on its own accord, with wins at the Critics Choice Awards, Satellite Awards, USC Scripter Awards, and the prominent precursor, the Writers Guild Awards. “Women Talking” is also nominated for Best Picture, despite only being nominated in this category, showing strong support in the screenplay category alone.

With all that factored in, even when you look at the competition, there’s nothing really on par with upsetting it. Although a fellow Best Picture nominee,” “Top Gun: Maverick” will never win Best Adapted Screenplay in a million years. “Living” was lucky to be nominated, and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” although my favorite pick, is not as crucial as “Women Talking.” That leaves “All Quiet on the Western Front” as the most significant competition with its eight other nominations, including Best Picture. However, my intuition tells me more Academy voters will see the significance in a win for “Women Talking” and Sarah Polley than for a previously adapted foreign war film.

Best Achievement in WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

“Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)

Written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

—
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Martin McDonagh (Searchlight Pictures)
“The Fabelmans” – Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner (Universal Pictures)
“TÁR” – Todd Field (Focus Features)
“Triangle of Sadness” – Ruben Östlund (Neon)

“Everything Everywhere All At Once” is the definition of “original,” so to not honor the film that will likely win Best Picture with a Best Original Screenplay win seems misguided. The screenplay has plenty in the win column, racking in honors at the Critics Choice Awards, Film Independent Spirit Awards, and the most crucial barometer, the Writers Guild Awards. So it seems like a foregone conclusion that it will win here.

Enter “The Banshess of Inisherin.” Martin McDonagh brought in his share of wins for the screenplay, including the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Satellite Awards. Will that be enough to give it the upset? It depends mainly on whether the Academy wants to spread the wealth. I’m currently predicting “Banshees” not win any awards, which seems unlikely given the amount of love towards the film. With that thought, this category would not surprise me in going to “Banshees.”