One of the longer Oscar seasons has come to an end, and here we are to predict the winner for the 98th Academy Awards. “Sinners” was my favorite film of 2025, so to see it get a record sixteen nominations is a win in and of itself. I hope to see it win many of them. And it’s crazy, the spoil of riches we received, with “One Battle After Another” proving to be a great film as well. Expect to see “KPop Demon Hunters” well represented at the Oscars, and for Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” to be popular in the tech awards. Overall, I’m just excited to have reached the finish line of this amazing year.

There have been many years where two films are battling it out for Best Picture, and movie lovers alike end up in different camps. “The King’s Speech” versus “The Social Network,” “There Will Be Blood” versus “No Country For Old Men,” “Gravity” versus “12 Years A Slave,” or “Boyhood” versus “Birdman.” In these years, you found yourself rooting deeply for one of the two films. This is one of those years, with “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” neck and neck. Had either film not been released this year, it would have been a sweep, but since they’re pitted against each other, it’s an all out war. Personally, “Sinners” was my favorite film of 2025, so I’m praying it gets the big win. But all signs point to “One Battle After Another” landing it.

With Timothée Chalamet giving himself some bad publicity and Michael B. Jordan getting the ecstatic reception at the Screen Actors Guild Awards when he won, with Viola Davis leading the charge, it now seems like Jordan’s to lose. No one was predicting that at the beginning of awards season and I couldn’t think of a more deserving win, especially with “Sinners” being one of my favorite films at this year’s Oscars.

One of the only sweeps of the season, Jessie Buckley will likely be the only win from “Hamnet.” She’s miles ahead of the competition, and has won almost every percursor leading up to the Oscars. The closest competition would probably be Rose Byrne for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” but she was a surprise contender to begin with. If you want a free spot on your Oscar ballot, this is the one.

It’s funny how I’d like almost every other actor to win this award, besdies Sean Penn, who is currently the front runner. Benicio del Toro is arguably the better supporting performance from the film. And early on the Oscars race, pundits predicted this was Stellan Skarsgård’s to lose. And, with my affinity for “Sinners,” nothing would be better than Delroy Lindo getting to accept this award. Especially considering Penn didn’t show up to the Screen Actors Guild Awards to accept his award there and notoriously being anti-Oscars, I’m not sure the point of even giving this award to Penn. But that appears to be the most likely outcome.

The fact that “Weapons” even got nominated is a feat in and of itself. So the idea that Amy Madigan could legitmately win this award is truly amazing. The Academy normally doesn’t go for horror, but with “Sinners” hitting the record number of nominations, it seems like those days are coming to an end. Madigan seems to have a lot of support in the industry, with some big precursor wins. I’d love to see Wunmi Mosaku take the award as well, but her BAFTA win is being chalked up to the fact that she’s British and been nominated by them before. Seeing “Weapons” become an Oscar winning film would make my night.

What a year 2025 was for “KPop Demon Hunters.” Going from a film that its studios didn’t really believe in, to it becoming a worldwide sensation. It’s miles ahead of its competition, even with its biggest threat being a Disney movie. There’s simply no topping this film and I enjoy more every time I watch it. It deserves the win and has swept enough precursors that it’s basically a lock.

My favorite Animated Short of the bunch was “Retirement Plan,” just because the idea was well executed and Domhnall Gleeson did a great job in his voice-acting role. But the consensus seems to think “Butterfly” was the better animated film, with subject matter involving race and sticking to Nazis. “Forevergreen” had a distinct animating style and was probably the most palatable of the bunch, so I could even see that one pulling off an upset. No matter the case, these shorts categories are usually what make or break people’s Oscar ballots.

With this being the first year of the Best Casting category, people don’t know what to expect. Seeing as Francine Maisler has won most of the precursors leading up to the Oscars, it seems like she has to be the favorite. But, like with many categories, they can often follow the Best Picture trajectory. So it might be whatever wins here has the best chance at winning the Best Picture Oscar. My money’s on “Sinners.”

It’s tough to go wrong with Best Cinematography. Many people have pulled into the “One Battle After Another” camp after it swept the cinematography guilds. But I’m still pulling for “Sinners” just because it would make history, as the first female cinematographer to win. I also wouldn’t be mad to see “Train Dreams” win, as it is by far the best part of that film. But that seems a bit too under the radar to actually pull off the win.

“Frankenstein” should easily clean up the crafts, as Guillermo del Toro films often do. Mia Goth’s wardrobe alone in the film is enough to get Kate Hawley the Oscar. Just as iconic was the costumes in “Sinners,” which will be remembered for years to come. So, were that to pull off an upset, I don’t see many people being disappointed. However, it does seem to be “Frankenstein”’s to lose.

After an enormous career and over a dozen Oscar nominations, it does seem that it is Paul Thomas Anderson’s time to shine. Which unfortunately came during the same year that it would have been great to honor Ryan Coogler. But nonetheless, it does seem like Anderson will be a multi-winning director by the end of the night. What I’m hoping for is a Best Picture/Director split, with Anderson winning here and “Sinners” winning Best Picture, but those are hard to predict and both categories usually end up going to the same film.

“The Perfect Neighbor” has been winning everywhere, so it goes without saying that it’s likely going to win the Oscar. The documentary that moved me the most was “Come See Me In The Good Light,” but that hasn’t won many precursors and doesn’t seem to be very high on other people’s ballots. The dark horse in this category has become “Mr. Nobody Against Putin,” because of the timely nature of the film. I remember enjoying the film when it premiered at Sundance and it is an exploration in investigative journalism where the main subject can no longer return to his home country for fear of retribution. However, it’s hard to think “The Perfect Neighbor” will have come this far not to win on the big night.

This category was full of tearjerkers this year, so picking one to win is definitely a difficult task. Ultimately, “All The Empty Rooms” was my favorite of the bunch, depicting the empty rooms of three children killed in school shootings (one of which is not far from my house). It also seems to be the favorite among the predictors. “Armed Only With A Camera” brought me to tears and depicted a journalist who was killed in Ukraine, as he covered the war. The timely nature of that film could easily earn it a win. “The Devil Is Busy” was a candid look at an abortion clinic struggling along in Georgia. The characters in the short are so real and authentic, it’s hard not to root for them as well. But ultimately, I’m going with the film I liked the most.

As much as I’d like to see “Sinners” win almost everywhere, it does seem like “One Battle After Another” is going to win this one. It raked in a bunch of the precursors and people are praising the climatic chase scene as some of the best editing of the year. With “F1: The Movie” being a favorite in Best Sound, you could see two technical awards go its way as well. And the tense chase scenes of that film are just as worthy. But with “One Battle After Another” likely to win many awards, I wouldn’t count it out.

Many are wondering if “The Secret Agent” could sneak in for Best International Feature, and although I see this as in the realm of possibilities, I think “Sentimental Value” will push through. The film has several acting nominations and Joachim Trier has a directing nomination, which means the Academy liked it enough to put it up for all those, a feat missed by “The Secret Agent.” So, in the end, it feels like “Sentimental Value”’s to lose.

Again, in the short film categories, I’m going with the film I liked the most. “Two People Exchanging Saliva” was the easiest to get through and had a story akin to something Yorgos Lanthimos would direct. I also enjoyed Netflix’s “The Singers,” which had an interesting premise of a grizzly bar patrons revealed to be amazing singers. All I can say is, I hope anything but “A Friend of Dorothy” wins, as it was saccarhine and forgettable.

With Jacob Elordi spending ten-eleven hours in the makeup chair to become Frankenstein’s monster, it’s hard no to root for the film to win in Best Makeup. Yes, “Sinners” is my prefered film, but you cannot deny the accomplishment that is Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein.”

Ludwig Goransson is becoming an Academy darling, having already won two Oscars for his original scores. And even if he wasn’t their darling, his score for “Sinners” would be winning this award. It’s hard to argue that any other film relied on its score more than “Sinners,” a film about a certain style of music. Jonny Greenwood’s score for “One Battle After Another” was impressive. but it’s hard to argue that the film relied on it more than “Sinners” relied on Ludwig’s. Mark this one up as another sure win for “Sinners.”

How do you argue that one of the most popular song sensations of 2025 isn’t going to win the Oscar? “Golden” was omnipresent last year and I think the only way it doesn’t win Best Original Song is if the Academy just simply had enough. But with it’s worldwide appeal and attachment to odds-on favorite to win Best Animated Feature, I just don’t see how anything can edge it out. It’s impactful in the film, it’s catchy, and even though the KPop genre might not be everyone’s cup of tea, it seems like most people respect it for what it was. The “Sinners” nominee “I Lied To You” is just as impactful in that film, but it didn’t have the otherworldly success of “Golden.” Surprises happen every year at the Oscars, so there’s always a glimmer of hope that “Sinners” could win here, and would likely signal where some of the bigger awards are going later in the evening.

Guillermo del Toro films are normally the bread and butter of the Best Production Design category. His style is unique and encompasses the entire film. “Frankenstein” is no different and if there’s one thing you remember after seeing the film, it’s the impressive set designs. Add to that a full sweep of the precursors this season, and there’s very little working against this winning the category. “Sinners” and “Hamnet” have impressive sets as well, that are almost like characters in and of themselves, but I just don’t see “Frankenstein” getting beat.

As silly as it may be, the Best Sound category normally goes to one of the “louder” films. Cars that go “vroom vroom” and bombs that go “boom boom” are usually the winning formula. So, “F1: The Movie” seems like the natural pick. It having a Best Picture nomination to along with it doesn’t hurt it either, as it shows how much the Academy supported it. “Sinners” has the musical element going for it, but with the precursors that “F1” won, I just don’t see it losing here. The only way that really happens is if the voters turned against it in the last hours, after the internet backlash of it getting a Best Picture nom. “Sinners” won a few precursors and even “Frankenstein” popped up in audio awards this season. But my money is on “F1.”

Both the “Avatar” films have won Best Visual Effects and I don’t expect for that streak to stop with “Fire and Ash.” These films are nothing if not a display of where visual effects are at these days. The stories aren’t great and it seems like less and less people are enjoying these films. But the visuals are undeniable. And compared to films like “Jurassic World Rebirth” or “The Lost Bus,” I just don’t see Academy voters picking anything but “Avatar.”

The real question isn’t whether “One Battle After Another” and Paul Thomas Anderson are winning for Best Adapted Screenplay, it’s whether they’d beat Ryan Coogler and “Sinners” if the category wasn’t split. All season long, these screenplays have been winning, but they’ve hardly ever had to face off head to head. So in a year where these two films are entirely neck and neck, which one would win if they were pitted against each other.

“Sinners” is the embodiment of the Best Original Screenplay category. Even if this was it’s only nomination, it would likely be coming away with the win. This category lives for films like “Get Out” and “Parasite.” And “Sinners” is right in line with those. Add to that all the precursors Coogler’s been winning for the screenplay, and you’ve got a perfect sweep and no surprise when this one wins.