Once the nominees are announced on January 15th, 2015, and once I embark on my annual Oscar Challenge, I will use the below boxes to list a progression of what I think will win based on a number of factors (history, other award ceremonies, general consensus, etc.) and also a list of what I think should win. This is much like the ballot that Academy Award members would fill out.

BEST PICTURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)“
  2. “Boyhood”
  3. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  4. “Selma”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)“
  2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  3. “Selma”
  4. “Boyhood”
  5. ***

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
  2. Steve Carrell, “Foxcatcher”
  3. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
  2. Steve Carrell, “Foxcatcher”
  3. ***

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Julianna Moore, “Still Alice”
  2. Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
  3. Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
  4. Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Julianna Moore, “Still Alice”
  2. Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
  3. Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
  4. Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
  5. ***

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Edward Norton, “Birdman”
  2. Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
  3. Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
  4. Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Edward Norton, “Birdman”
  2. Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
  3. Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
  4. Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
  5. ***

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
  2. Emma Stone, “Birdman”
  3. Meryl Streep, “Into The Woods”
  4. Laura Dern, “Wild”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
  2. Emma Stone, “Birdman”
  3. Meryl Streep, “Into The Woods”
  4. Laura Dern, “Wild”
  5. ***

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “How To Train Your Dragon 2”
  2. “Big Hero 6”
  3. “Song Of The Sea”
  4. “The Boxtrolls”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “How To Train Your Dragon 2”
  2. “Big Hero 6”
  3. “Song Of The Sea”
  4. “The Boxtrolls”
  5. ***

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Birdman,” Emmanuel Lubezki
  2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Robert Yeoman
  3. “Ida,” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
  4. “Mr. Turner,” Dick Pope
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Birdman,” Emmanuel Lubezki
  2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Robert Yeoman
  3. “Mr. Turner,” Dick Pope
  4. “Ida,” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
  5. ***

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Milena Canonero
  2. “Into The Woods,” Colleen Atwood
  3. “Maleficent,” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
  4. “Mr. Turner,” Jacqueline Durran
  5. “Inherent Vice,” Mark Bridges
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Milena Canonero
  2. “Into The Woods,” Colleen Atwood
  3. “Inherent Vice,” Mark Bridges
  4. “Maleficent,” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
  5. “Mr. Turner,” Jacqueline Durran

BEST DIRECTING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman”
  2. Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
  3. Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  4. Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman”
  2. Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
  3. Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  4. Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
  5. ***

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “CitizenFour”
  2. “Virunga”
  3. “Finding Vivian Maier”
  4. “Last Days In Vietnam”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “CitizenFour”
  2. “Finding Vivian Maier”
  3. “Last Days In Vietnam”
  4. “Virunga”
  5. ***

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
  2. “Joanna”
  3. “Our Curse”
  4. “White Earth”
  5. “The Reaper”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
  2. “Joanna”
  3. “The Reaper”
  4. “Our Curse”
  5. “White Earth”

BEST FILM EDITING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Boyhood,” Sandra Adair
  2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Barney Pilling
  3. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Barney Pilling
  2. “Boyhood,” Sandra Adair
  3. ***

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Ida”
  2. “Leviathan”
  3. “Timbuktu”
  4. “Tangerines”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Leviathan”
  2. “Tangerines”
  3. “Ida”
  4. “Timbuktu”
  5. ***

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  2. “Guardians Of The Galaxy”
  3. “Foxcatcher”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Guardians Of The Galaxy”
  2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  3. “Foxcatcher”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Alexandre Desplat
  2. “Interstellar,” Hans Zimmer
  3. “Mr. Turner,” Gary Yershon
  4. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Interstellar,” Hans Zimmer
  2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Alexandre Desplat
  3. “Mr. Turner,” Gary Yershon
  4. ***

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Glory” from “Selma”
  2. “Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
  3. “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
  4. “Grateful” from “Beyond The Lights”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Glory” from “Selma”
  2. “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
  3. “Grateful” from “Beyond The Lights”
  4. “Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
  5. ***

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  2. “Into The Woods”
  3. “Interstellar”
  4. “Mr. Turner”
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  2. “Into The Woods”
  3. “Mr. Turner”
  4. “Interstellar”
  5. ***

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Feast”
  2. “The Dam Keeper”
  3. “The Bigger Picture”
  4. “Me And My Moulton”
  5. “A Single Life”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Feast”
  2. “A Single Life”
  3. “The Dam Keeper”
  4. “The Bigger Picture”
  5. “Me And My Moulton”

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Phone Call”
  2. “Boogaloo And Graham”
  3. “Parvaneh”
  4. “Aya”
  5. “Butter Lamp”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Boogaloo And Graham”
  2. “Aya”
  3. “Butter Lamp”
  4. “The Phone Call”
  5. “Parvaneh”

BEST SOUND EDITING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Interstellar”
  2. “Birdman”
  3. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Interstellar”
  2. “Birdman”
  3. ***

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Birdman”
  2. “Interstellar”
  3. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Interstellar”
  2. “Birdman”
  3. ***

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Interstellar”
  2. “Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes”
  3. “Guardians Of The Galaxy”
  4. “Captain America: The Winter Soldier”
  5. “X-Men: Days Of Future Past”
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Interstellar”
  2. “Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes”
  3. “Guardians Of The Galaxy”
  4. “Captain America: The Winter Soldier”
  5. “X-Men: Days Of Future Past”

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “Inherent Vice,” Paul Thomas Anderson
  2. ***
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Inherent Vice,” Paul Thomas Anderson
  2. ***

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN:

 

  1. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
  2. “Birdman,” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., Armando Bo
  3. “Boyhood,” Richard Linklater
  4. “Nightcrawler,” Dan Gilroy
  5. “Foxcatcher,” E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
SHOULD WIN:

 

  1. “Birdman,” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., Armando Bo
  2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
  3. “Nightcrawler,” Dan Gilroy
  4. “Foxcatcher,” E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
  5. “Boyhood,” Richard Linklater

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