MARRIAGE STORY

Noah Baumbach | David Heyman

A young creative couple and their son navigate the tricky waters of bicoastal separation and impending divorce.

UNLIKELY

In the Best Picture category, there are currently the “big three,” which are the films with the best shot at winning. “Marriage Story” is not one of them. They include “1917,” “Parasite,” and “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood.” I would even say “The Irishman” falls in somewhere ahead of “Marriage Story” as well.

Noah Baumbach

2005 (78th)

Best Original Screenplay

“The Squid and the Whale”

NOMINEE

David Heyman

2013 (86th)

Best Picture

“Gravity”

NOMINEE

Written by Noah Baumbach

POSSIBLE

You shouldn’t rule out Noah Baumbach’s screenplay for “Marriage Story” completely, but as of right now, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood” and “Parasite” are the front-runners. The Academy loves to award Tarantino’s writing and experts are actually placing the odds on “Parasite” winning this one, which definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility. However, coming into the Oscars, Baumbach had plenty of steam and if he won here, it definitely would not surprise.

Adam Driver

An up-and-coming stage director, Charlie Barber juggles life between New York and Los Angeles when his wife, Nicole, moves there with their son and files for divorce.

POSSIBLE

If Joaquin Phoenix had not been winning across the board this season, we would definitely be talking about Adam Driver more. However, Phoenix seems pretty locked in as the front-runner and it would take quite a bit of support to take that away.

Adam Driver

2018 (91st)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

“BlacKkKlansman”

NOMINEE

Scarlett Johansson

A former actress, Nicole Barber moves back to Los Angeles with her son and files for divorce from her husband, Charlie, who still lives in New York.

POSSIBLE

To win in the Best Actress in a Leading Role category, anyone that wants to win, including Scarlett Johansson, will have to go through Renée Zellweger apparently, as she’s swept this awards season and is the odds-on favorite to win the Oscar. If you were ranking the actresses that aren’t named Renée Zellweger, Johansson would probably be the next in line.

Scarlett Johansson

NONE

Laura Dern

A high profile Los Angeles divorce lawyer, Nora Fanshaw represents Nicole Barber during her divorce from Charlie.

FRONT-RUNNER

Laura Dern is the one to beat in this category. She’s beloved by her peers and has swept the awards season thus far. The only actress that would even come close to taking the award would be her “Marriage Story” co-star Scarlett Johansson, who is nominated for her performance in “Jojo Rabbit.” That being said, Dern is as locked as you can get heading into Oscar night.

Laura Dern

1991 (64th)	Best Actress in a Leading Role	“Rambling Rose”	NOMINEE
2014 (87th)	Best Actress in a Supporting Role	“Wild”	NOMINEE

Randy Newman

UNLIKELY

Randy Newman and John Williams are both names that pop in Original Score almost anytime they do anything. That’s how good they are. But it doesn’t put any urgency in getting them a win. Right now, Hildur Guðnadóttir for “Joker” is the front-runner being picked by most of the experts, while I tend to believe Thomas Newman for “1917” has a pretty good shot too. Even Alexandre Desplat for “Little Women” probably has a better shot than Newman at the moment.

Randy Newman

1981 (54th)	Best Original Score	“Ragtime”	NOMINEE
1981 (54th)	Best Original Song	“Ragtime”	NOMINEE
1984 (57th)	Best Original Score	“The Natural”	NOMINEE
1989 (62nd)	Best Original Song	“Parenthood”	NOMINEE
1990 (63rd)	Best Original Score	“Avalon”	NOMINEE
1994 (67th)	Best Original Song	“The Paper”	NOMINEE
1995 (68th)	Best Original Musical or Comedy Score	“Toy Story”	NOMINEE
1995 (68th)	Best Original Song	“Toy Story”	NOMINEE
1996 (69th)	Best Original Musical or Comedy Score	“James and the Giant Peach”	NOMINEE
1998 (71st)	Best Original Dramatic Score	“Pleasantville”	NOMINEE
1998 (71st)	Best Original Musical or Comedy Score	“A Bug’s Life”	NOMINEE
1998 (71st)	Best Original Song	“Babe: Pig in the City”	NOMINEE
1999 (72nd)	Best Original Song	“Toy Story 2”	NOMINEE
2000 (73rd)	Best Original Song	“Meet The Parents”	NOMINEE
2001 (74th)	Best Original Score	“Monsters, Inc.”	NOMINEE
2001 (74th)	Best Original Song	“Monsters, Inc.”	WON
2006 (79th)	Best Original Song	“Cars”	NOMINEE
2009 (82nd)	Best Original Song	“The Princess and the Frog”	NOMINEE
2009 (82nd)	Best Original Song	“The Princess and the Frog”	NOMINEE
2010 (83rd)	Best Original Song	“Toy Story 3”	WON

OSCARS CHALLENGE
Viewed on January 24, 2020
Streamed on Netflix