Oscars Watch: 96th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions – Weekend Before Announcement

The 96th annual Academy Award nominations will be announced this Tuesday (January 23) at 8:30 am E.T. / 5:30 am P.T. Everyone spent the weekend submitting their predictions for the nominees, so I also wanted to try my hand. I based many of my picks on what has been winning the other awards ceremonies, national Critics Circle awards, and personal preference. This year, people’s predictions are aligning in several categories. Still, the Academy is known for throwing in some shockers.

Early in the season, “May December” appeared primed to be a major awards contender, but here we are, two nights before the announcements, and it looks like it will be struggling to get more than one nomination. “Oppenheimer” and “Killers Of The Flower Moon” will fight it out in most categories that they’re eligible, while “Barbie” will play upsetter. Once set to be a more significant player, the support for “Barbie” feels slighter. Rising in popularity are “The Holdovers,” “Anatomy Of A Fall,” and “The Zone Of Interest,” while “American Fiction,” “Maestro,” and “Poor Things” remain consistently appreciated. And “Past Lives” could have the support it needs to show up in a few major categories.

A sight-unseen film I thought would have a more significant presence this awards season was “Napoleon.” The Academy rallies typically behind Ridley Scott, Joaquin Phoenix, and, more recently, Vanessa Kirby, but the film fizzled on all fronts. “All Of Us Strangers” and “Saltburn” are the hardest to gauge. They’ve appeared and disappeared at varying stages of the award season and could either miss entirely or have a more extensive haul than anyone is predicting. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” is also a film that could go either way, having the chance to appear in many more categories than an animated film typically does.

Leading Actor is one of the most challenging categories to predict. Will Leonardo DiCaprio be left out again? In Leading Actress, I could see a surprise of Margot Robbie missing out to someone like Fantasia Barrino or Greta Lee and I wonder if “Nyad” will be completely excluded. My hope for Cailee Spaeny making it in for “Priscilla” seems like a long shot. De Niro, Downey Jr., and Gosling feel locked in the Supporting Actor category, but god only knows who will make up the last two spots. All of the previous award bodies have yet to be consistent. Both “Poor Things” actors could end up missing out. And if the “May December” love doesn’t exist, Charles Melton could also not get in. Sterling K. Brown and Dominic Sessa feel like easy swaps. I’ve been predicting Penelope Cruz for Supporting Actress since I saw the “Ferrari” trailer, and the Academy picked her for “Parallel Mothers” when no one else was. They also love Julianne Moore, so whether they support her film or not, I can see her getting in. And my “no guts, no glory” upset is Vanessa Kirby sneaking in despite zero precursors to predict so.

The momentum for Animated Features feels all in favor of big studio films and “The Boy and the Heron.” I would love to see “Nimona” or “Robot Dreams” sneak in. Still, the Academy is always so supportive of Aardman’s animation that “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” feels more likely to get the upset. I’m hoping for some extra love for “The Zone of Interest,” with potential nominations in the Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound categories, on top of already landing as the favorite in International Feature. I’d love for it to get Adapted Screenplay, but with “Barbie” moving into that category, I see it getting bumped.

So what gets in and what misses this year? I look forward to joining Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid as they announce the nominees live Tuesday morning from the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills, CA.

BEST PICTURE

“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures

“ANATOMY OF A FALL”
Neon

“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures

“THE HOLDOVERS”
Focus Features

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“MAESTRO”
Netflix

“OPPENHEIMER”
Universal Pictures

“PAST LIVES”
A24

“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures

“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
A24

ALTERNATES

“SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE”
Sony + Columbia Pictures

“ALL OF US STRANGERS”
Searchlight Pictures

“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

“SALTBURN”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer

“MAY DECEMBER”
Netflix

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

BRADLEY COOPER
“Maestro”
Netflix

COLMAN DOMINGO
“Rustin”
Netflix

PAUL GIAMATTI
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features

CILLIAN MURPHY
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures

JEFFREY WRIGHT
“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures

ALTERNATES

LEONARDO DICAPRIO
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

ANDREW SCOTT
“All Of Us Stranger”
Searchlight Pictures

BARRY KEOGHAN
“Saltburn”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer

Teo Yoo
“Past Lives”
A24

Nicolas Cage
“Dream Scenario”
A24

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

LILY GLADSTONE
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

Sandra Hüller
“Anatomy of a Fall”
Neon

CAREY MULLIGAN
“Maestro”
Netflix

MARGOT ROBBIE
“Barbie”
Warner Bros. Pictures

EMMA STONE
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures

ALTERNATES

Annette Bening
“Nyad”
Netflix

Fantasia Barrino
“The Color Purple”
Warner Bros. Pictures

Greta Lee
“Past Lives”
A24

CAILEE SPAENY
“Priscilla”
A24

Natalie Portman
“May December”
Netflix

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

ROBERT DE NIRO
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

ROBERT DOWNEY JR.
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures

RYAN GOSLING
“Barbie”
Warner Bros. Pictures

Charles Melton
“May December”
Netflix

MARK RUFFALO
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures

ALTERNATES

Sterling K. Brown
“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures

WILLEM DAFOE
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures

Dominic Sessa
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features

MATT DAMON
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures

PAUL MESCAL
“All Of Us Strangers”
Searchlight Pictures

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

EMILY BLUNT
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures

DANIELLE BROOKS
“The Color Purple”
Warner Bros. Pictures

PENELOPE CRUZ
“Ferrari”
Neon

Julianne Moore
“May December”
Netflix

DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features

ALTERNATES

VANESSA KIRBY
“Napoleon”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

Jodie Foster
“Nyad”
Netflix

Rosamund Pike
“Saltburn”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer

Sandra Hüller
“The Zone of Interest”
A24

RACHEL MCADAMS
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.”
Lionsgate

ANIMATED FEATURE

“THE BOY AND THE HERON”
Studio Ghibli

“ELEMENTAL”
Pixar Animation + Walt Disney Pictures

“SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE”
Sony + Columbia Pictures

“THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE”
Illumination Entertainment + Universal Pictures

“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
Paramount Pictures

ALTERNATES

“Nimona”
Netflix

“Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget”
Netflix

“Suzume”
Crunchyroll

“WISH”
Walt Disney Pictures

“ROBOT DREAMS”
NEON

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Rodrigo Prieto
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“MAESTRO”
Matthew Libatique
Netflix

“OPPENHEIMER”
Hoyte van Hoytema
Universal Pictures

“POOR THINGS”
Robbie Ryan
Searchlight Pictures

“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
Łukasz Żal
A24

ALTERNATES

“Barbie”
Rodrigo Prieto
Warner Bros. Pictures

“SALTBURN”
Linus Sandgren
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer

“EL CONDE”
Edward Lachman
Netflix

“Asteroid City”
Robert Yeoman
Focus Features

“NAPOLEON”
Dariusz Wolski
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

COSTUME DESIGN

“BARBIE”
Jacqueline Durran
Warner Bros. Pictures

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Jacqueline West
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“Napoleon”
Janty Yates
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

“OPPENHEIMER”
Ellen Mirojnick
Universal Pictures

“POOR THINGS”
Holly Waddington
Searchlight Pictures

ALTERNATES

“Maestro”
Mark Bridges
Netflix

“Wonka”
Lindy Hemming
Warner Bros. Pictures

“Priscilla”
Stacey Battat
A24

“Asteroid City”
Milena Canonero
Focus Features

“Guardians of the Galaxy
Vol. 3″
Judianna Makovsky
Walt Disney. Pictures

DIRECTING

GRETA GERWIG
“Barbie”
Warner Bros. Pictures

YORGOS LANTHIMOS
“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures

Alexander Payne
“The Holdovers”
Focus Features

CHRISTOPHER NOLAN
“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures

MARTIN SCORSESE
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

ALTERNATES

Bradley Cooper
“Maestro”
Netflix

JONATHAN GLAZER
“The Zone Of Interest”
A24

Justine Triet
“Anatomy of a Fall”
Neon

Celine Song
“Past Lives”
A24

Cord Jefferson
“American Fiction”
Orion Pictures

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL”
PBS Distribution

“AMERICAN SYMPHONY”
Netflix

“BEYOND UTOPIA”
Roadside Attractions

“FOUR DAUGHTERS”
Kino Lorber

“STILL: A MICHAEL J. FOX MOVIE”
Apple TV+

ALTERNATES

“BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT”
National Geographic

“The Eternal Memory”
MTV Documentary Films

“Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project”
HBO Documentary Films

“32 Sounds”
Abramorama

“Apolonia, Apolonia”
Staron Film

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

“The ABCs Of Book Banning”
MTV Documentary Films

“Camp Courage”
Netflix

“The Last Repair Shop”
Searchlight Pictures

“Oasis”
Travelling Distribution

“Wings of Dust”
5 Stick Films

ALTERNATES

“Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games”
ESPN Films

“Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”
Disney+

“Island In Between”
The New York Times Op-Docs

“How We Get Free”
HBO Documentary Films

“Between Earth & Sky”
PBS Distribution

FILM EDITING

“BARBIE”
Nick Houy
Warner Bros. Pictures

“FERRARI”
Pietro Scalia
Neon

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Thelma Schoonmaker
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“OPPENHEIMER”
Jennifer Lame
Universal Pictures

“POOR THINGS”
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Searchlight Pictures

ALTERNATES

“Anatomy Of A Fall”
Laurent Sénéchal
Neon

“The Holdovers”
Kevin Tent
Focus Features

“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
Paul Watts
A24

“Maestro”
Michelle Tesoro
Netflix

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Michael Andrews

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

“SOCIETY OF THE SNOW”
Spain
Netflix

“THE TASTE OF THINGS”
France
IFC Films

“THE TEACHERS’ LOUNGE”
Germany
Sony Pictures Classics

“TÓTEM”
Mexico
Sideshow + Janus Films

“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
United Kingdom
A24

ALTERNATES

“FALLEN LEAVES”
Finland
MUBI

“PERFECT DAYS”
Japan
MUBI

“Godland”
Iceland
Janus Films

“THE PROMISED LAND”
Denmark
Magnolia Pictures

“Io Capitano”
Italy
Pathe + 01 Distribution

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

“Golda”
Bleecker Street

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“MAESTRO”
Netflix

“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures

“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures

ALTERNATES

“Ferrari”
Neon

“Napoleon”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

“Beau Is Afraid”
A24

“Society of the Snow”
Netflix

“The Last Voyage of the Demeter”
Universal Pictures

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Robbie Robertson
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“OPPENHEIMER”
Ludwig Göransson
Universal Pictures

“POOR THINGS”
Jerskin Fendrix
Searchlight Pictures

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Daniel Pemberton
Sony + Columbia Pictures

“The Zone Of Interest”
Mica Levi
A24

ALTERNATES

“BARBIE”
Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt
Warner Bros. Pictures

“THE BOY AND THE HERON”
Joe Hisaishi
Studio Ghibli

“AMERICAN FICTION”
Laura Karpman
Amazon MGM Studios + Orion Pictures

“SALTBURN”
Anthony Willis
Amazon MGM Studios

“SOCIETY OF THE SNOW”
Michael Giacchino
Netflix

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

“I’m Just Ken”
from “Barbie”
Music and Lyrics by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Caroline Ailin, & Dua Lipa
Performed by Ryan Gosling
Warner Bros. Pictures

“What Was I Made For?”
from “Barbie”
Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell
Performed by Billie Eilish
Warner Bros. Pictures

“The Fire Inside”
from “Flamin’ Hot”
Written by Diane Warren
Performed by Becky G
Searchlight Pictures

“CAN’T CATCH ME NOW”
from “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes”
Music and Lyrics by Olivia Rodrigo & Dan Nigro
Performed by Olivia Rodrigo
Lionsgate

“Road To Freedom”
from “Rustin”
Lenny Kravitz
Netflix

ALTERNATES

“Dance The Night”
from “Barbie”
by Dua Lipa
Warner Bros. Pictures

“Am I Dreaming?”
from “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Performed by Metro Boomin, A$AP Rocky & Roisee
Sony + Columbia Pictures

“It Never Went Away”
from “American Symphony”
Jon Batiste
Dan Wilson
Netflix

“Keep It Movin’”
from “The Color Purple”
Performed by Halle Bailey, Blu June, Brittany Coney, Morten Ristorp, & Phylicia Pearl Mpasi
Warner Bros. Pictures

“HIGH LIFE”
from “Flora and Son”
Performed by Eve Hewson & Orén Kinlan
Music and Lyrics by Eve Hewson, Gary Clark, & John Carney
Apple Original Films

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“OPPENHEIMER”
Universal Pictures

“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures

“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
A24

ALTERNATES

“ASTEROID CITY”
Focus Features

“MAESTRO”
Netflix

“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

“SALTBURN”
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer

“FERRARI”
Neon

SHORT FILM (ANIMATION)

“27”
Flóra Anna Buda

“Humo (Smoke)”
Rita Basulto

“Once Upon A Studio”
Dan Abraham
Trent Correy

“War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
Dave Mullins

“Wild Summon”
Karni Arieli
Saul Freed

ALTERNATES

“Letter to a Pig”
Tal Kantor

“Ninety-Five Senses”
Jared Hess & Jerusha Hess

“Pachyderme”
Stéphanie Clément

“Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)”
Priit Tender

“Our Uniform”
Yegane Moghaddam

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

“The After”
Misan Harriman

“Good Boy”
Tom Stuart

“Strange Way of Life”
Pedro Almodóvar

“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
Wes Anderson

“YELLOW”
Elham Ehsas

ALTERNATES

“The Anne Frank Gift Shop”
Mickey Rapkin

“An Avocado Pit”
Ary Zara

“Dead Cat”
Danick Audet & Annie-Claude Caron

“Invicible”
Vincent René-Lortie

“Red, White, and Blue”
Nazrin Choudhury

SOUND

“Ferrari”
Neon

“MAESTRO”
Netflix

“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

“OPPENHEIMER”
Universal Pictures

“THE ZONE OF INTEREST”
A24

ALTERNATES

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films

“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
Paramount Pictures

“BARBIE”
Warner Bros. Pictures

“THE CREATOR”
20th Century Studios

“THE KILLER”
Netflix

VISUAL EFFECTS

“The Creator”
20th Century Studios

“GODZILLA MINUS ONE”
Toho International

“Guardians Of The Galaxy
Vol. 3″
Marvel + Walt Disney Pictures

“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
Paramount Pictures

“POOR THINGS”
Searchlight Pictures

ALTERNATES

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Sony + Columbia Pictures

“NAPOLEON”
Columbia Pictures + Apple Original Films

“INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY”
Walt Disney Pictures

“SOCIETY OF THE SNOW”
Netflix

“Rebel Moon
Part One: A Child of Fire”
Netflix

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

“American Fiction”
Written by Cord Jefferson
Based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett
Orion Pictures

“BARBIE”
Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
Warner Bros. Pictures

“KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON”
Written by Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese
Based on “Killers of the Flower Moon” by by David Grann
Paramount Pictures + Apple Original Films