Oscars Watch: 97th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

After getting pushed off its original date of Friday, January 17, due to the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, which inched close to the Dolby Theatre, the site of the 97th Academy Awards, over a week ago, the Academy has now announced Thursday, January 23 as the new date for the nominations announcement. Presented by Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott, this year will have strong showings from “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Wicked,” which are frontrunners in many of the categories. What many will be tuned in for is to see if films like “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing” have garnered the support they need, and if films like “September 5” and “Challengers,” which were praised earlier in the season, will make the final cut.

One big surprise out of this season has to be the groundswell that “The Substance” created. In most years, the Academy strays away from horror films. But, centering around the Hollywood system and lifting back up an actress who was huge and then disappeared is an area that the Academy loves to go. The love for “The Substance” has catapulted it into a lock for Best Picture. The only spots in Best Picture that feel like they’re up for grabs are “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing,” which underperformed in some precursors. Currently, I predict “September 5” to entirely miss out. Also missing from my predictions are nominations for “The Apprentice,” which has garnered some spotty support throughout the season. It doesn’t feel like the film caught on enough this season, and I can see voters not wanting to step on Donald Trump’s toes just as he becomes the 47th President.

There are several films that I hope get nominated that I currently have out. Hugh Grant and “Heretic” would be a lovely surprise come Oscar nomination morning. One film that appears to be overperforming is “Nosferatu.” Again, the Academy tends not to go for horror films, but perhaps as it is based on an iconic Hollywood classic and it lives in a distinct period positions it apart. There’s been some doubt placed on Angelina Jolie getting a nomination for Best Leading Actress, but because Kristen Stewart and Natalie Portman got nominated for their roles in Pablo Larraín’s films, it is hard to see Jolie not getting a nomination. The Supporting Actor category is a tough one to predict, because after seeing Denzel Washington in “Gladiator II,” I thought it was a foregone conclusion that he would get a nomination, especially as an Academy favorite. But Edward Norton or Guy Pearce will likely take his stop.

Many of my predictions are wishful thinking mixed with looking at precursors and listening to word-of-mouth. My biggest hope is that Margaret Qualley gets nominated for her role in “The Substance.” I’d also love to see Danielle Deadwyler get some redemption for her snub in “Till” a few years back and get in for her role in “The Piano Lesson,” which would be a lone nomination for that film. Jamie Lee Curtis was a late-season addition, as she started popping up for her role in “The Last Showgirl,” but it feels weird to give her a nomination and not the film’s star, Pamela Anderson. I hate not predicting Denis Villeneuve for directing “Dune: Part Two,” but he has fewer precursors than his main competition and he was snubbed for directing the first “Dune.” Some films I hope get snubbed are “Better Man” and “Kneecap,” while some films that are underdogs that I want to sneak in are “Alien: Romulus,” “Civil War” and “Blitz.”

BEST PICTURE

“ANORA”
NEON

“The Brutalist”
A24

“A Complete Unknown”
Searchlight Pictures

“Conclave”
Focus Features

“Dune: Part Two”
Warner Bros Pictures

“Emilia Pérez”
Netflix

“Nickel Boys”
Orion/Amazon MGM Studios

“Sing Sing”
A24

“The Substance”
MUBI

“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

ALTERNATES

“All We Imagine As Light“
Sideshow/Janus Films

“Challengers”
Amazon MGM Studios

“Nosferatu”
Focus Features

“A Real Pain”
Searchlight Pictures

“September 5”
Paramount Pictures

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist”
A24

Daniel Craig
“Queer”
A24

Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown”
Searchlight Pictures

Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing”
A24

Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave”
Focus Features

ALTERNATES

Sebastian stan
“The Apprentice”
Briarcliff Entertainment

Hugh Grant
“Heretic”
A24

Sebastian stan
“A different man”
A24

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

Karla Sofía Gascón
“EMILIA PÉREZ”
Netflix

Angelina Jolie
“Maria”
Netflix

Mikey Madison
“Anora”
NEON

Demi Moore
“The Substance”
MUBI

ALTERNATES

Amy Adams
“Nightbitch”
Searchlight Pictures

Pamela Anderson
“The Last Showgirl”
Roadside Attractions

Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths”
Bleecker Street

Nicole Kidman
“Babygirl”
A24

Saoirse Ronan
“The Outrun”
Sony Pictures Classics

FERNANDA TORRES
“I’m Still Here”
Sony Pictures Classics

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Yura Borisov
“Anora”
NEON

Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain”
Searchlight Pictures

Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing”
A24

EDWARD NORTON
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
Searchlight Pictures

Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist”
A24

ALTERNATES

JEREMY STRONG
“THE APPRENTICE”
Briarcliff Entertainment

Stanley Tucci
“Conclave”
A24

Denzel Washington
“Gladiator II”
Paramount Pictures

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

JAMIE LEE CURTIS
“The Last Showgirl“
Roadside Attractions

Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson”
Netflix

Ariana Grande-Butera
“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

Margaret Qualley
“The Substance”
MUBI

Zoe Saldaña
“EMILIA PÉREZ“
Netflix

ALTERNATES

Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown“
Searchlight Pictures

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor
“NICKEL BOYS”
Orion/Amazon MGM Studios

Selena Gomez
“EMILIA PÉREZ“
Netflix

FELICITY JONES
“The Brutalist”
A24

Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave”
Focus Features

ANIMATED FEATURE

“Flow”
Sideshow/Janus Films

“Inside Out 2”
Pixar Animation

“Memoir Of A Snail”
IFC Films

“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
Netflix

“The Wild Robot”
DreamWorks Animation

ALTERNATES

“Chicken for linda!”
GKIDS

“Moana 2”
Walt Disney Pictures

“Transformers One”
Paramount Pictures

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“The Brutalist”
Lol Crawley
A24

“Conclave”
Stéphane Fontaine
Focus Features

“Dune: Part Two”
Greig Fraser
Warner Bros Pictures

“Maria”
Edward Lachman
Netflix

“NOSFERATU”
Jarin Blaschke
Focus Features

ALTERNATES

“Challengers”
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom
Amazon MGM Studios

“EMILIA PÉREZ”
Paul Guilhaume
Netflix

“The Girl With The Needle”
Michal Dymek
MUBI

“NICKEL BOYS”
Jomo Fray
Orion/Amazon MGM Studios

“Wicked”
Alice Brooks
Universal Pictures

COSTUME DESIGN

“Conclave”
Lisy Christl
Focus Features

“Dune: Part Two”
Jacqueline West
Warner Bros Pictures

“Maria”
Massimo Cantini Parrini
Netflix

“Nosferatu”
Linda Muir
Focus Features

“Wicked”
Paul Tazewell
Universal Pictures

ALTERNATES

“Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice”
Colleen Atwood
Warner Bros Pictures

“Blitz”
Jacqueline Durran
Apple Original Films

“A Complete Unknown”
Arianne Phillips
Searchlight Pictures

“Emilia Pérez”
Virginie Montel
Netflix

“Gladiator II”
David Crossman & Janty Yates
Paramount Pictures

DIRECTING

Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez”
Netflix

Sean Baker
“Anora”
NEON

Edward Berger
“Conclave”
Focus Features

Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist”
A24

Coralie Fargeat
“The Substance”
MUBI

ALTERNATES

Jon M. Chu
“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

Payal Kapadia
“All We Imagine as Light”
Sideshow | Janus Films

James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown”
Searchlight Pictures

RaMell Ross
“Nickel Boys”
Orion/Amazon MGM Studios

Denis Villeneuve
“Dune: Part Two”
Warner Bros Pictures

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Black Box Diaries“
MTV Documentary Films

“Daughters”
Netflix

“No Other Land”
mTuckman Media

“Soundtrack to a coup d’etat”
Kino Lorber

“Sugarcane”
National Geographic

ALTERNATES

“Dahomey“
MUBI

“Hollywoodgate”
Fourth Act Film

“Porcelain War”
Picturehouse

“The Remarkable life of ibelin”
Netflix

“Will & HArper”
Netflix

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

“I Am Ready, Warden”
MTV Documentary Films

“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
The New York Times

“MAKAYLA’S VOICE: A LETTER TO THE WORLD”
Netflix

“Once upon a Time in Ukraine”
Comscore

“A SWIM LESSON”
PBS/Los Angeles Times

ALTERNATES

“Chasing Roo”
Spin Film

“Death By Numbers”
Cuomo Cole Productions

“Eternal Father”
The New Yorker

“Incident”
Hypnotic Pictures

“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Netflix

“Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr”
The New Yorker

FILM EDITING

“ANORA”
Sean Baker
NEON

“Challengers”
Marco Costa
Amazon MGM Studios

“Conclave”
Nick Emerson
Focus Features

“Dune: Part Two”
Joe Walker
Warner Bros Pictures

“Emilia Pérez”
Juliette Welfling
Netflix

ALTERNATES

“The Brutalist”
Dávid Jancsó
A24

“Civil War”
Jake Roberts
A24

“September 5”
Hansjörg Weissbrich
Paramount Pictures

“The Substance”
Coralie Fargeat, Jérôme Eltabet, & Valentin Feron
MUBI

“Wicked”
Myron Kerstein
Universal Pictures

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

“Emilia Pérez”
(France)
Netflix

“The Girl With The Needle”
(Denmark)
MUBI

“I’m Still Here”
(Brazil)
Sony Pictures Classics

“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
(Germany)
NEON

“vermiglio”
(Italy)
Warner Bros Pictures

ALTERNATES

“ANORA”
(Norway)
IFC Films

“Dahomey”
(Latvia)
MUBI

“Flow”
(Latvia)
Sideshow/Janus Films

“Kneecap”
(Ireland)
Sony Pictures Classics

“santosh”
(United Kingdom)
Good Chaos

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

“Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice”
Warner Bros Pictures

“A Different Man”
A24

“Emilia Pérez”
Netflix

“The Substance”
MUBI

“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

ALTERNATES

“The Apprentice”
Briarcliff Entertainment

“Dune: Part Two”
Warner Bros Pictures

“Maria”
Netflix

“Nosferatu”
Focus Features

“Waltzing with brando”
VMI Worldwide

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

“The Brutalist”
Daniel Blumberg
A24

“Challengers”
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Amazon MGM Studios

“Conclave”
Volker Bertelmann
Focus Features

“Emilia Pérez”
Clément Ducol & Camille
Netflix

“The Wild Robot”
Kris Bowers
DreamWorks Animation

ALTERNATES

“Blitz”
Hans Zimmer
Apple Original Films

“Gladiator II”
Harry Gregson-Williams
Paramount Pictures

“Inside Out 2”
Harry Gregson-Williams
Pixar Animation

“Nosferatu”
Robin Carolan
Focus Features

“Wicked”
Stephen Schwartz
Universal Pictures

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

“Compress/repress”
from “Challengers”
Amazon MGM Studios

“el mal”
from “Emilia Pérez”
Netflix

“mi camino”
from “Emilia Pérez”
Netflix

“the journey”
from “the six triple eight”
Netflix

“Kiss the sky”
from “The Wild Robot”
DreamWorks Animation

ALTERNATES

“Forbidden Road”
from “BETTER MAN”
Paramount Pictures

“Winter Coat”
from “BLITZ”
Apple Original Films

“Never Too Late”
from “Elton john: never too late”
Disney+

“Beyond”
from “MOANA 2″
Walt Disney Pictures

“Like A Bird”
from “Sing Sing”
A24

“Out of Oklahoma”
from “TWISTERS”
Universal Pictures

“Harper and Will Go West”
from “Will & Harper”
Netflix

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“The Brutalist”
A24

“Conclave”
Focus Features

“Dune: Part Two”
Warner Bros Pictures

“Nosferatu”
Focus Features

“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

ALTERNATES

“ALIEN: ROMULUS“
20th Century Studios

“Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice”
Warner Bros Pictures

“Civil war”
A24

“A Complete Unknown”
Searchlight Pictures

“Emilia Pérez”
Netflix

“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga”
Warner Bros Pictures

“Gladiator II”
Paramount Pictures

SHORT FILM (ANIMATION)

“A BEAR NAMED WOJTEK”
Illuminated Film Company

“A CRAB IN THE POOL“
Semaphore Films

“IN THE SHADOW OF THE CYPRESS“
Barfak Animation Studio

“WANDER TO WONDER”
Beast Animation

“yuck!”
Iliade and Films

ALTERNATES

“THE 21”
MORE Productions

“Au Revoir Mon Monde”
Ecole MoPA

“BEAUTIFUL MEN”
Animal Tank

“Maybe Elephants”
Mikrofilm

“ME”
Bitter Films

“Percebes”
Ikki Films

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

“ANUJA”
Shine Global

“Dovecote”
LEAF Entertainment

“I’M NOT A ROBOT”
OAK Motion Pictures

“THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT”
Contrast Films

“Room Taken”
Vico Films

ALTERNATES

“Crust”
Film University Babelsberg

“Clodagh”
Afternoon Pictures

“Edge of space”
Atticus Films

“The Last Ranger”
Six Feet Films

“The Masterpiece”
Incognito Motion Pictures

“an Orange from jaffa”
Synecdoche

SOUND

“Blitz”
Apple Original Films

“A Complete Unknown”
Searchlight Pictures

“Dune: Part Two”
Warner Bros Pictures

“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

“The Wild Robot”
DreamWorks Animation

ALTERNATES

“Alien: Romulus”
20th Century Studios

“Deadpool & Wolverine”
Marvel Studios

“Emilia Pérez”
Netflix

“Gladiator II”
Paramount Pictures

“Joker: Folie à Deux”
Warner Bros Pictures

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Alien: Romulus“
20th Century Studios

“Dune: Part Two”
Warner Bros Pictures

“Gladiator II”
Paramount Pictures

“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
20th Century Studios

“Mufasa: The Lion King”
Walt Disney Pictures

ALTERNATES

“Better Man”
Paramount Pictures

“Civil War”
A24

“Deadpool & Wolverine”
Marvel Studios

“Twisters”
Universal Pictures

“Wicked”
Universal Pictures

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

“A Complete Unknown”
Jay Cocks & James Mangold
Searchlight Pictures

“Conclave”
Peter Straughan
Focus Features

“Dune: Part Two”
Denis Villeneuve & Jon Spaihts
Warner Bros Pictures

“Emilia Pérez”
Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, & Nicolas Livecchi
Netflix

“Nickel Boys”
RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Orion/Amazon MGM Studios

ALTERNATES

“Hit Man”
Glen Powell & Richard Linklater
Netflix

“Sing Sing”
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
A24

“Wicked”
Winnie Holzman
Universal Pictures

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

“ANORA”
Sean Baker
NEON

“The Brutalist”
Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold
A24

“Challengers”
Justin Kuritzkes
Amazon MGM Studios

“A Real pain”
Jesse Eisenberg
Searchlight Pictures

“The Substance”
Coralie Fargeat
MUBI

ALTERNATES

“All We Imagine as Light”
Payal Kapadia
Sideshow/Janus Films

“Civil War”
Alex Garland
A24

“My Old ass”
Megan Park
Amazon MGM Studios

“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Mohammad Rasoulof
NEON

“September 5”
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, & Alex David
Paramount Pictures