Wagner Moura and The Secret Agent were major winners at this year’s Golden Globes, prompting speculation about whether that momentum can carry through to the Oscars. Although Sentimental Value has long appeared to have Best International Feature firmly in its sights, this is one category where an upset feels genuinely possible.

If anything is working against The Secret Agent, it’s the sheer strength of Sentimental Value’s nomination haul. The film overperformed with acting nominations for Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, alongside Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård, with director Joachim Trier also landing a surprise nomination. By contrast, The Secret Agent underperformed in some expected areas but managed to secure a nod in the newly introduced Best Casting category—ironically over Sentimental Value, despite the latter’s multiple acting mentions. Some have speculated that the size and complexity of The Secret Agent’s ensemble gave it an edge there. Additionally, the Academy’s recent embrace of Brazilian cinema—underscored by last year’s win for I’m Still Here—suggests that support for Brazil remains strong within the voting body.

That unpredictability makes The Secret Agent one of the evening’s true wild cards. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet remains the presumed frontrunner, but pundits consistently place Moura close behind. If there’s any vulnerability in Chalamet’s campaign, it may be narrative-driven; public comments about his frustration over not yet winning an Oscar could either galvanize support or subtly alienate voters. Moura, by contrast, benefits from a quieter but steadily building groundswell—positioning him as a plausible spoiler.

Best Casting, meanwhile, is difficult to forecast. Sinners appears to have the edge, but as a brand-new category, its voting patterns remain untested. It may ultimately develop its own internal logic, independent of broader above-the-line strength. The only race that feels relatively settled is Best Picture, where One Battle After Another and Sinners seem poised for a head-to-head showdown.

As for the film itself, I found The Secret Agent competently made but somewhat conventional. The 1970s Brazil aesthetic is richly realized, and the ensemble—largely unfamiliar to me—delivers the film’s strongest elements. Still, the narrative of hitmen tracking a man in hiding treads familiar ground and rarely ventures into unexpected territory. While its craftsmanship is evident, it didn’t strike me as particularly revelatory. If it were my ballot, I’d cast it for Sentimental Value.