Had you told anyone at the beginning of 2025 that the Apple Original film The Lost Bus, starring Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrera, would become an Oscar nominee, few would have believed you. The film recounts the true story of a school bus driver who saved 22 children during the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, California—one of the most devastating wildfires in the state’s history.

Its sole nomination comes in Best Visual Effects, recognizing the film’s extensive use of CGI to recreate the firestorm: the smoke-choked skies, the encroaching flames, the suffocating dust. It’s a subtle but technically demanding achievement. How it secured a nomination over more effects-driven spectacles like James Gunn’s Superman or Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps is open to debate. Perhaps it’s precisely because the effects don’t call attention to themselves. Rather than overwhelming the frame, they integrate seamlessly into the film’s grounded, human-scale storytelling. And in the wake of the devastating fires that struck Los Angeles just last year, there may be an added layer of appreciation for how authentically the film renders such destruction.

That said, most pundits—including myself—view Avatar: Fire and Ash as the overwhelming frontrunner. The sheer scale and technical ambition of the Avatar franchise remain unmatched, and each installment has not only earned a nomination in this category but gone on to win. If the race were to open up, Best Picture nominees like Sinners or F1 could benefit from broader Academy support. Historically, large-scale contenders with above-the-line strength can surge late.

Ultimately, the nomination itself may represent the film’s biggest victory. Landing in the final five over shortlisted titles such as Superman, Wicked: For Good, and Frankenstein is no small feat. For a film few expected to factor into the awards conversation at all, The Lost Bus has already exceeded predictions.